With the recently announced deal with Turkey, Iran just outmaneuvered the US, not to mention the UN and everyone else who has been calling for more tough actions. Iran has agreed to ship 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Turkey, where it would be held. In exchange, it is entitled to 120 kg of uranium enriched to 20 percent to use in a Tehran medical research reactor that produces isotopes for cancer treatment. It is interesting that Iran rejected a similar deal in October where it was to ship 1200 kg of LEU - about 70% of stock pile at that time, but now after 6 months, Iran has continued processing and has accumulated double that quantity. It is now ready to ship out the 1200 kg, which would still allow it to keep roughly half the uranium at home...just in case. Granted the deal has many escape clauses, but at this point, the world does not have any choices.
Like it or not, Turkey and Brazil have succeeded where the five permanent members of the UN Security Council had failed. But instead of applauding the deal, the US and EU are pushing towards a fourth U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran's nuclear weapons program. Iran has already proved to the world that the sanctions will not stop its progress and has sent a strong message that, in fact every time sanctions are passed, it will speed up enrichment. Even as the sanctions creak along, at this point, it amounts to pretty much just going through the motion. Russia and China are looking for any excuse to jump off the wagon and protect their interests in Iran. They have already rejected key proposals in stopping Iran's access to international financial markets and continue to arm it with weapons. The GCC too have come together to support Iran's show of goodwill in accepting this deal and the push for sanctions this time around looks like it will clearly not have any impact.
Any effort to dealing with Iran's nuclear capability will have to include realistic expectations. Expecting Iran to give up control of its full LEU capacity is not plausible, especially when the nuclear program enjoys the support of at large part of the Iranian population. Any plan should include small steps of confidence building and Instead of threatening Iran the United States and Europe should welcome initiatives which aim to establish a platform for engagement. But with the US and EU always pushing Iran's back against the wall, Iran is left with very little options other than to continue pursuing nuclear technology. Before criticizing Iran, let’s be clear that what Iran is doing is perfectly legal within the UN framework. Iran is a signatory to the NPT and has the rights to pursue nuclear technology for civilian energy programs. Fact is, Iran has made several compromise offers in the last few years that would address any REAL concern about weapons proliferation. Iran has offered to open its nuclear program to US participation, and to sign the Additional Protocol which allows more intensive IAEA inspections (no other nuclear country has done all that) and yet the US and the West consistently ignore Iran's compromise offers and insist on an unachievable goal of "zero enrichment in Iran" which is a disregard of Iran's sovereign rights as recognized by the NPT.
The reality is that there are only two options: Iran gets nuclear weapons, or someone uses pre-emptive military force to break Iran's nuclear fuel cycle and paralyze its program, at least temporarily. There is no possibility the US will use force, despite its confused and ever-changing policy right from Bush to Obama about the military option always being "on the table." That leaves Israel attacking Iran the only option which will make it vulnerable to potential retaliation and legitimize full blown attacks from Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda and Iran. To be honest, Israel also does not look all that strong since it could not even make a dent to Hamas after it attacked it for weeks last time. In fact Hamas and Hezbollah came out stronger after they were able to withstand the full might of the Israeli army. This is one reason why even Obama has refused to be a part of any Israeli plans to attack Iran since he understands the myth of Israeli army's strength in the Arab world was put to bed when Israel went to war with Hezbollah in 2006.
Its time to wake up folks... The US, Israel and the world have to prepare to deal with a nuclear Iran. Every western country says they will do all they can to prevent this, but given the current political realities in the US, Middle East and EU, it is time for everyone to brace reality and start formulating strategies on how to deal with Iran once it goes nuclear. At this point the only thing the US and EU can do is provide security assurances to neighboring countries and promises of retaliation if Iran uses its nuclear weapons first. The simple fact of Iran possessing nuclear weapons would alone dramatically alter the Middle East balance of power. Iran does not actually have to use its capabilities to prove anything. North Korea is case and point where they torpedoed and sank the South Korean Navy ship, and Kim Jong Il has directed North Korea’s military and civilian population to prepare for war, and the only thing the US and world can do is stand by and deem the behavior "Odd".
Ultimately, the west has to understand that you cannot get a foreign country to do exactly what you want unless you can exert sufficient military or economic force to compel them. In the case of Iran, no country has that level of economic force and the disadvantages of military action far outweigh the advantages. George Bush understood this, Obama understands it and so, unfortunately, do the Iranians. That is why the world is dancing around the issue of Iran's nuclear program for years without anyone being able to take any kind of action. On the other hand, Iran is still merrily enriching uranium at levels that are approaching weapons-grade, and it isn't likely to stop anytime soon. No one should base their future plans on anything except dealing with a nuclear Iran.
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