Friday, September 28, 2007

Dear Tech Support


Email to Tech Support

Dear Tech Support,
Last year I upgraded from Boyfriend 5.0 to Husband 1.0 and noticed a distinct slow down in the overall performance, particularly in the Flower and Jewellery applications, which operated flawlessly under Boyfriend 5.0.

In addition, Husband 1.0 un-installed many other valuable programs, such as Romance 9.5 and Personal Attention 6.5 and then installed undesirable programs such as: Football 5.0, Rugby 4.3 and Cricket 3.0. Conversation 8.0 no longer runs; it simply crashes the system. I've tried running Nagging 5.3 to fix these problems, to no avail.

What can I do?

Signed,
Desperate

Reply from Tech Support

Dear Desperate,
First keep in mind, Boyfriend 5.0 is an Entertainment Package, while Husband 1.0 is an Operating System.Try entering the command: C:/I-THOUGHT-YOU-LOVED-ME to download Tears 6.2, which should automatically install Guilt 3.0. If that application works as designed, Husband 1.0 should then automatically run the applications Jewellery 2.0 and Flowers 3.5. But remember, overuse of the above application can cause Husband 1.0 to default to Grumpy Silence 2.5, Happy Hour 7.0, or Beer 6.1. WARNING: Beer 6.1 is a very nasty program that will create Snoring Loudly.

CAUTION: Whatever you do, DO NOT install Mother-in-law. This is not a supported application and will crash Husband 1.0.In summary, Husband 1.0 is a great program, but it does have limited memory and cannot learn new applications quickly. You might consider buying additional software to improve memory and performance. I personally would recommend Hot Food 3.0 and Lingerie 7.7.

Good Luck,
Tech Support

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Ram Sethu – The bridge under shallow waters


Adam's Bridge a.k.a Ram Setu both meaning "Rama’s Bridge" in India, is a chain of limestone shoals between the islands of Mannar and Ramesharam. There is enough geological evidence to indicate that this bridge acted as former land connection between India and Srilanka. The bridge consists of a series of parallel ledges of sandstone and conglomeration, that is hard at the surface and grows coarse and soft as it descends to sandy banks. In the 19th century, there were two prevalent theories explaining the structure. One considered it to be formed by a process of accretion and rising of the land, while the other surmised that it was formed by the breaking away of Sri Lanka from the Indian subcontinent.

The Project
First conceptualized in 1860 and finally after fourteen proposals and 144 years, the Indian govt. approved a multi-million dollar project which is called the ‘Sethusamudram Shipping Canal Project’. The purpose of the project is to create a shipping channel across the straight. The plan is to dredge the shallow ocean floor to create enough leeway allowing ships to pass through the channel instead of having to go around Sri Lanka.

What is the Issue?
Though there are arguments for and against the project – which have their own merits, there are various fundamental issues which are not yet addressed by the government.

Arguments for the project include boosting international trade by saving nearly 30 hours' shipping time by cutting over 400 km off the shipping voyage (as the ships don’t have to go around Sri Lanka anymore). Since the government is unable to prove any real benefits, its argument primarily centers on just a single point – a perceived future economic boost and strengthening the Indian Navy. Considering the cost of the project, which is a whooping 2600 crores, it seems a bit premature with to go ahead with so many unknowns.

Arguments against the project also give us some real issues to think about. The opposition against the project voices concerns related to its impact on the environment and damage that will be caused by dredging the area. Also, potential loss of Thorium deposits and increased risk of damage due to future Tsunamis is something that cannot be overlooked. The opponents, of which, there are many also claim that it will cause tremendous damage to the local ecology, marine wealth and affect the livelihoods of the fishing communities along the coasts of southern India and Sri Lanka. Besides, they say, no one is quite sure where the Indian government will put all that sand and silt it digs up.

The Religious Angle
There are millions who believe that the Ram Setu was actually the bridge built by Lord Ram with the help of Hanuman and his friends using floating stones and Rama’s army marched over this bridge to destroy the evil regime of Ravana. Apart from the Ramayana, the Mahabharata also refers to the continued protection of Nala Setu following Lord Rama's command. Kalidasa's Raghuvamsham also refers to the Setu. So does the Skanda Purana (III 1.2.1-114), the Vishnu Purana (IV 4.40-49), the Agni Purana (V-XI), the Brahma Purana (138.1-40). No one can doubt the religious significance that Ram Setu has in Hinduism.


Picture Taken by NASA

The Political Angle
The Centre has told the Supreme Court that while filing an affidavit, that there is no evidence to prove the existence of characters or events in the Ramayana and the Ram Sethu is not a man-made structure. The govt took a stand that since it is only a natural formation, it could be demolished and the canal can be built. This sparked off a controversy of mammoth proportions as the Center was seen questioning the existence of Lord Ram. DMK’s chiefs comments that Ram did/never existed made this worse embarrassing the government and pitted the rest of the country against TN.

The UPA been unable to convince the anti-Sethusamudram groups on any count. Its assurances and denials and justifications have only made matters worse. At the same time, since it needs the support of the DMK, it is trying to pacify one and all. In the recent days, the matter took an uglier turn when DMK activists attacked the TN BJP headquarters and injured BJP party men. The Congress for its part is trying to distance itself from the DMK and its statements.

Whether it was a natural formation or really built by Lord Ram one will never know and one can never prove otherwise, but either ways the Ram Setu is undoubtedly considered by millions to be a part of Indian heritage and preserving it should be on the mind of every Indian. While even the Christians and Muslims in India have never questioned it, it is sad to see our politicians making a mockery out of it.

Given below are statements made by our politicians.

Karunanidhi: "Some say there was a person over 17 lakh years ago. His name was Ram. Do not touch the bridge (Ram Sethu) constructed by him... From which engineering college did he graduate? Is there any proof of this?"

Vilas Vedanti: “Fatwa against Karunanidhi”

Rajnath Singh: ``Given the manner in which the relationship between the Congress and the Left Front is increasingly getting strained, it clearly indicates that Lok Sabha elections are no longer far away,’’

Jayanti Natarajan: "The BJP is in the midst of an existential crisis. The lotus is wilting. They are not just downwardly mobile, they are in an irreversible decline”


One thing is clear, the common man is not being heard.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

123...Go!!!


Congress: We need this deal for India. We figured after 60 years of sitting around, its time to finally do something for India.
BJP: We will oppose the deal..Till we come back to power
Left: We want India to be left behind
Kalam: Can I still be president..Please??
Chinese: Wow, these Indians have negotiated a better deal than us, lets oppose them and create some confusion. Call our friends at the CPI.

As opposition to the Indo-US nuclear agreement grows, one wonders if we are our own worst enemy. The problem is the Communist parties in India are fundamentally against any business with the US/West and its got to a point where they are making India look ridiculous. Sure India is a democracy while gives all parties a voice, but the left has successfully turned the proceedings into a circus by threatening the Congress every other day. BJP, for its part is playing the perfect opposition by opposing the deal simply becuase they have to (and asking the govt to re-negotiate) and brainstorming any way in which they can take some credit as well.

The snap polls conducted all over the country clearly proved that the people of India have endorsed this deal and that the vast majority of both the Indian elite and middle class are very much in favor of not just a normalization of ties with America but also favor a much more comprehensive strategic partnership. From the American side, both the Democratic and Republican parties see a partnership with India as one of the priorities of US foreign policy no matter which president is sworn in.

While Abdul Kalam has reviewed and blessed the deal as a step forward for India, I fail to understand why the left is continuing to make noise which can only lead to further isolation. In today’s ever changing global dynamics, every political party must, in the national interest, ensure that we are ready to meet the emerging global challenges consistent with our national self-interest. India needs to establish friendly relations with key global players: the USA, Russia, China, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Brazil etc. Sure we are growing at a double digit pace and every country is looking to India to grow and expand. But are we a true global player yet?? The answer would be a resounding ‘NO’. We do have the potential to become one, but it is indeed sad to see that just when we have gotten our foot in the door, the rug is being pulled once again by our politicians.

Anyone who has carefully read the entire deal will know that the deal is tipped in India’s favor and the fact is the US has indeed given a lot of concessions to bring India on board (esp. for a country which has not signed the CTBT).

Although uranium is the only naturally occurring fissile element directly usable in a nuclear reactor, India has only 0.8% of the world’s uranium reserves and may have to depend on imports in the future. Sure this is a genuine concern which can be addressed, but India is investing and building a prototype thorium reactor so it does not have depend on imports in the future (India has 32% of world’s thorium reserves). I also fail to understand why is it one or the other. The fact is currently our nuclear reactors are running at below 60 per cent capacity due to the shortage of nuclear fuel and this deal is critical for India's energy sector. It could be decades before we even come close to indigenously developing reactors to harness energy contained in non-fissile thorium.
We simply cannot afford to miss the bus on this deal and risk getting isolated or worse lag behind in comparison to other developing countries becuase all our politicians are interested is in getting one up on each other. While Japan, UK, Russia and France have recognized the importance of this deal and have already shown confidence in India, it is strange to see our left parties shouting ‘Down with US-Imperialism’ and opposing the deal for no rhyme or reason. (While most of their children are in the US)

Let there be no doubt that the 123 agreement with the US will allow India to become a global player in a competitive world and will no way impact its sovereignty in any way. The deal sure has had some bumps along the road, but its success is inevitable given the strength of momentum with US-India relations which is at an all time high.

Thursday, September 6, 2007

The Politics of Economic Policies


India has had an unprecedented stretch of growth over the last four years, averaging over 8% per year. Inflation was relatively low in the early part of this period but has picked up recently, thanks to demand-side pressures. RBI began a monetary tightening cycle in late 2004 and has maintained this stance in its quarterly announcements. However since 2006 — along with increases in its benchmark rates, the bank has been using the cash reserve ratio as an additional instrument to control surging liquidity. This liquidity can be mainly attributed to high capital inflows, which have risen significantly over the past few quarters and are flowing into equity, corporate debt, and remittances from NRI’s (which seem quite unstoppable now).

By 2007, RBI has abandoned its currency management regime, which had resisted appreciation. The bank is now allowing the Indian rupee (INR) to more accurately reflect the balance of payments surplus. The currency has responded sharply to this tactic, appreciating by almost 10% over the last three months.

Growth, Despite Rising Interest Rates
As the Chart indicates below, the economy grew at 9.4% in fiscal 2006-2007 (April-March), spurred by a steady acceleration in the manufacturing sector. Industrial production grew at a double-digit pace over the last few quarters, a pattern that is inconsistent with the steady increase in benchmark interest rates over the same period. In fact, much of the growth momentum was provided by sectors such as construction and automobiles, which are recognized to be relatively sensitive to interest rates. This indicates the ineffectiveness of tightening monetary policy, which depended entirely on hiking interest rates. The banking system was able to offset the central bank's rate increases with the huge increases in liquidity from high capital inflows. Only when the bank implemented direct measures—the cash reserve ratio—to rein in liquidity in late 2006 did lending rates begin to increase.



The impact of these recent moves is only just beginning to become visible. Industrial production numbers for the initial months of the current fiscal year (April 2007-March 2008), while still showing high growth in the aggregate, clearly point to a slowdown in some critical sectors—automobiles and metal products, in particular. It also reflects long-term optimism about business conditions, even as the immediate future looks a little less bright than in 2006-2007. Meanwhile, the services sector, the largest and fastest growing segment of GDP, shows every sign of maintaining its momentum.

Yes - Export Growth is Slowing
The Chart below displays the rather dramatic impact on export growth (in rupee terms) as a result of the rupee's sharp appreciation over the past few months. This rate of growth is relevant in measuring the top-line impact of appreciation on exporters. Of course, businesses dependent upon imported material clearly benefit from this development, but the combined impact on exporters and domestic producers of importable goods is likely to significantly reduce aggregate demand, thereby contributing to the soft landing.



The reason the central bank abandoned its protection of an undervalued exchange rate was that it was becoming impossible to offset the expansion of money supply that resulted from foreign exchange reserve accumulation. The RBI realized that it cannot buy $$ at the same pace that $$ was flowing into the country. The impact of an appreciated rupee will no doubt linger for some time to come, while exporting and import-substituting businesses are forced to take immediate actions to improve productivity. Short of a massive crash in the equity markets that provokes a sustained exit of foreign investors, the rupee is unlikely to depreciate from current levels. The only question is whether it will have an unrestricted rise or if RBI will step in to attempt a more gradual and stable appreciation.

Time to Relax??
Based on the current dynamics of the Indian economy, GDP growth during 2007-2008 will drop from last year's 9.4% to around 8.5%. Given the likelihood of a neutral monetary stance over the next few quarters, growth during fiscal 2008-2009 should accelerate somewhat to the 8.5%-9% range. There is always a risk in the form of market turbulence and rising oil prices, both of which could prove to be destabilizing. At this point, however, their significance is not great enough to offset the strong fundamentals underlying the recent surge in growth.

There should be no surprises in inflation and it is also likely to hover around 5% during 2007-2008. Pressure on the rupee to appreciate continues under this scenario, as capital inflows more than offset a potential current account deficit. The risk here is from global market turbulence, which if severe enough, could even reverse the trend in the rupee. If this risk does not materialize, the rupee will appreciate in a managed way and everyone should be prepared for the Rupee to stay at the 39-40/1 mark with the $$ for a long time to come