Last year, the visa cap for H1B petitions was filled on Day 1. Though no numbers were released officially, it is estimated that USCIS had in fact received about 150,000 applications and thus resorted to ‘lottery’ (Random Selection) to pick up eligible applications. Many applicants had to wait longer just to know if their application was selected. Also, due to sudden rush, many had to wait for months to receive a status on their accepted application as well.Now with just 2 more weeks left to go before USCIS accepts applications for 2009 H1B Quota, it looks like last years rush is about to repeat this year as well. Here are few things that may affect the drama this year and may change the stats a little bit.
Recession, Slowdown and Layoffs
It has already been widely acknowledged that the US economy is not in its brightest spot and we are already in a recession. Though some optimists are declaring just a slowdown, rest assured with recent announcements of another full percentage point rate cut looming and stagflation fears, the economy is in trouble. This puts direct pressure on all IT consultants and prospective H1B consultants for year 2008. Some may be reminded of the "dotcom" bust in 2001, where 1000s of IT consultants lost their jobs and had to leave for India after spending months searching for their next gig. For H1B consultants, this is a lot more serious issue, as if they loose their job or their project ends, they almost immediately have to leave US or be 'on bench' with no pay. Question is how long can people survive with either of those scenarios?
A Game of Chance...
Just like last year, it is almost certain that visa cap will be reached on day 1 and USCIS may again resort to ‘random selection’. That would mean, there is no guarantee and chances are completely based on luck rather than a consultant’s qualifications and specialization. Given here is a link with statistics released by USCIS as to the number of H1-B approvals for last year.
http://www.businessweek.com/table/08/0305_h1b.htm
New Competition for H1B Holders
July 2007 was a historic period of the year in the sense that in a sudden and surprise move, all visa status became current for green card applicants from India and almost all submitted their I-485 applications. All such applicants received EADs for themselves and their spouses. Spouses of many of these applicants who were on dependent visas like H4 became suddenly eligible to work without any restrictions. That brought in a totally new breed of workforce to the already downsized market for 2008. This additional supply of workforce surely puts more pressure in the job market especially when there are fewer jobs out there and now H1's are competing with EAD's.
Numbers this year...
The official H1B quota still stands at 65,000. There is no news about any possible increase and increases in caps looks unlikely with recession. The actual number of visas available is infact about 58,000 once you subtract the visas reserved for Singapore/Chile. For those who received or receiving Graduate Degree or any other Advanced Degree from US Universities, there is an additional quota of 20,000.
H1B Abuse - Yes it happens every year.
If you look at the statistics link above, it gives you an insight as to who is getting the most H1's. There is no doubt that the outsourcers are abusing the H1B visa program. Companies such as Infosys and Wipro are undermining the American economy by wiping out jobs. The companies bring low-cost workers to the U.S., train them in the offices of U.S. clients, and then rotate them back home after a year or two so they can provide tech support and other services from abroad. At the end of the day, an employee of Infosys or Wipro who manages to get a H1 stays in the country for maybe 2 years or so on an average of 6 years thereby denying the visa to someone graduating from an American university who truly needs the visa. The numbers released by USICS clearly shows the visa is not being used for what it was intended for. The outsourcing companies also prefer H1’s to L1’s or B1’s as once an H1 is stamped for an employee they can fly out overnight (whenever the client wants them onsite) and also there is less legal costs involved. Since their tactics have now been noted by USICS, it will be interesting to see if the outsourcing companies get the same number of approvals like last year.
Whatever the case may be, as the filing date approaches, the H1 B visa rush starts NOW!!!
