Wednesday, October 31, 2007

The Magic of Math

Check this out......
1 x 8 + 1 = 9
12 x 8 + 2 = 98
123 x 8 + 3 = 987
1234 x 8 + 4 = 9876
12345 x 8 + 5 = 98765
123456 x 8 + 6 = 987654
1234567 x 8 + 7 = 9876543
12345678 x 8 + 8 = 98765432
123456789 x 8 + 9 = 987654321

Now Look at this ......
1 x 9 + 2 = 11
12 x 9 + 3 = 111
123 x 9 + 4 = 1111
1234 x 9 + 5 = 11111
12345 x 9 + 6 = 111111
123456 x 9 + 7 = 1111111
1234567 x 9 + 8 = 11111111
12345678 x 9 + 9 = 111111111
123456789 x 9 +10= 1111111111

What do you think now ......
9 x 9 + 7 = 88
98 x 9 + 6 = 888
987 x 9 + 5 = 8888
9876 x 9 + 4 = 88888
98765 x 9 + 3 = 888888
987654 x 9 + 2 = 8888888
9876543 x 9 + 1 = 88888888
98765432 x 9 + 0 = 888888888

And Finally.....
1 x 1 = 1
11 x 11 = 121
111 x 111 = 12321
1111 x 1111 = 1234321
11111 x 11111 = 123454321
111111 x 111111 = 12345654321
1111111 x 1111111 = 1234567654321
11111111 x 11111111 = 123456787654321
111111111 x 111111111 = 12345678987654321

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Rise of the Oil Barrel

The price of crude oil has been on a roller-coaster ride, hitting a record $89 per barrel in October before drifting back a little as I write this. And, in the past year, oil has been as low as $50 per barrel. One could argue that the economics of supply and demand would imply a drop in prices as the global economy becomes more energy-efficient and economic growth slows in much of the industrial West. But demand elsewhere and the politics of the Middle East and other oil-producing regions suggest that prices could just as well rise sharply. When Goldman came out with a report last year that oil prices will touch $120 per barrel, Wall Street seemed to laugh it off. Now…not so anymore. With Turkey voting for military incursions into Iraq and the continuing dollar slide with no recovery in sight, well, it might just happen.

The one certainty is continuing uncertainty. Oil prices will probably remain volatile, creating problems not only for the global economy but also for the industrial sectors that are heavy users of crude and refined products, especially airlines, chemicals, electrical utilities, and freight transportation. The worldwide demand for oil will no doubt increase rapidly over the long term because of the strength of the Asian economies. Chinese energy use continues to grow at a double-digit annual pace, and China is rapidly catching up with the U.S. in total energy consumption. India is smaller in terms of total GDP and energy usage, but its appetite for oil is growing nearly as rapidly. So, even with a weaker U.S. economy and sluggish growth in Japan and Europe, energy demand should eventually rise. Although the developed countries can probably hold energy use constant, rolling it back is difficult. The lack of compliance with the carbon emissions goals set forth in the Kyoto accords proves that it is not easy to walk the walk.

The demand side is only half of the equation, however. The other is supply. Oil's role as a financially traded instrument may have exploded in the past few years, but ultimately, it's still a physical commodity. Finding oil and natural gas is becoming more and more difficult. Exploration companies have already looked in the easy places. Now they're eyeing sites that are more difficult to operate in, either politically or geographically. Deep-sea deposits can be tapped, but at a high price. How far and fast energy prices will rise is uncertain, but the direction seems all too clear.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007