American Gangster

This past weekend, I watched American Gangster. Though I had seen the previews earlier, I had no expectations going in, and I must say I was pleasantly surprised. It was a gripping movie and it certainly had my attention for over two and a half hours.

The biopic movie, about the real life gangster Frank Lucas and Detective Richie Roberts, is definitely worth a watch. It is set in the 1970’s New York underworld. The film explores the rise and fall of Lucas who also happens to be the guy who was above the Italian mafia at that time. Meanwhile, throughout Lucas’s rise, an outcast cop named Richie Roberts begins to put the pieces together and discovers that Lucas is the next big crime boss and at all costs wants to and manages to bring him down. A great gangster film ensues!

I am sure all of you can read the reviews of the movies online, but what intrigued me about the movie was the irony of both characters. Their professional and personal lives are flipped. Frank does dishonest things for a living at every turn, but in his personal life lives by a strict moral code of humility, honesty, church and family. Richie is a painfully honest cop, but his personal life is a garbage dump of lies, failed relationships, prostitutes and insecurities.

The movie did get me curious and I did do some looking around to see the kind of life the real Frank Lucas and Richie Roberts are leading today… and believe it or not, they are good friends today. It was one of those movies that I was thinking about the next day (rarely does that happen :)

Anyways, for those interested in looking/reading about the real American Gangster, here are some interesting links

http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/people/features/3649/

http://www.cnn.com/2007/SHOWBIZ/Movies/11/09/film.real.americangangster.ap/index.html
http://www.daylife.com/topic/Frank_Lucas

And watch this video

http://www.charlierose.com/guests/richie-roberts

The Shrinking Economy

The U.S. economic data seems to be coming in much stronger than expected. Real GDP rose 3.9% in the second quarter and payrolls jumped 166,000 in October. Does this mean the economy is ignoring the housing problems and energy prices, or does it just mean that the eventual decline will be even worse?

The Federal Reserve's quarter-point interest rate cut on Oct. 31 suggests that they believe the worst is yet to come. Whether the economy is moving towards a slowdown or turns into a recession depends on three factors:

• Can consumers continue to ignore energy and home prices?
• Will the current problems in financial markets extend the downturn beyond housing into other sectors, especially commercial construction?
• Will overseas economies continue to grow and buy more U.S. goods?

The higher oil price does raise the probability of recession. Three consecutive quarters of growth near or less than 1.5% mean that a negative quarter is very likely but lets hope with luck there won't be two in a row.

SPENDING SPREE

The ability of the American consumer to keep on spending continues to surprise pretty much one and all. Consumer spending again rose at a 3.0% annual rate in the third quarter, rebounding from a slow 1.4% in the second quarter. The saving rate rose to 0.9% in September. So far, however, it is clear that consumers have no doubt been living up to—if not beyond—their incomes.

Even more important is the rise in oil prices, which is squeezing consumer buying power. Oil hit $97/barrel on Nov. 6. It is widely being forecasted that the price will retreat to $85/barrel over the next few months. Although the underlying supply and demand conditions suggest that prices should be lower, worries about the middle east, problems between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds, with President Musharraf in Pakistan, and with Iran all add to fears of supply disruption
The risk of further price hikes is clearly very real, and these could further squeeze consumers.
It is expected to slow, but not stop consumer spending.

GLOBAL EFFECT

The major area of strength for the U.S. economy is foreign trade. The widening trade gap had been a drag on GDP over the last several years, but it has been improving since last January. U.S. growth has slowed, slowing imports, while growth overseas has remained stronger. The falling dollar has also helped boost exports. Over the last four quarters, the improvement in the real trade deficit has added 0.75% to real GDP, accounting for 30% of the 2.6% real GDP growth.
Asian growth appears solid. Chinese GDP is set to climb 11.5% this year, with Indian real GDP set to touch 9.5%. Some slowdown in both is likely next year, but China's should remain in the double digits. The developed countries are doing less well. Europe is slowing, in part because the strength of the euro hurts exports and U.S. growth is slower. Japan's real GDP fell in the second quarter but should rebound in the third. One advantage for the rest of the world is that the U.S. slowdown has been concentrated in residential construction. Because residential construction has a relatively small import component, the effect on exports from Asia and other markets has been much less than if it had been concentrated elsewhere.

There has been a lot of talk about the decoupling of the world economy. That metaphor is incorrect. The world is more tightly coupled than it has ever been by financial and trade flows. The difference is not that the train has come uncoupled but that the train has more engines pulling it. A decade ago, the U.S. was 23% of world GDP in terms of purchasing power and accounted for about the same percentage of world growth. Today, the U.S.'s share of world GDP has shrunk to 20%, and it accounted for only 12% of 2006 growth. China, in contrast, has risen to 15% of world GDP and 30% of world growth.

Oil prices are a problem for other countries besides the U.S., but there is a critical difference between a rise in oil prices caused by stronger demand and higher oil prices caused by supply disruption. When demand pulls oil prices, the higher costs to the oil importers are balanced by higher income for oil exporters, who either spend the money or invest it. This recycling of petroleum revenues helps keep the world economy going despite higher costs. It is not a perfect balance, and it has contributed to the problems of excess liquidity that has inflated bubbles around the world, but it is better than the alternative.

The dollar is of course going to continue to fall. The current account deficit, although it has shrunk, remains very wide at 5.5% of GDP in the third quarter. In the last two years, the inflow of capital seeking higher yields in the U.S. offset this. But a year ago, U.S. Treasuries were trading a percentage point higher than equivalent European government bonds. Today, that spread has shrunk to only 15 basis points (bps). In addition, foreign investors are worried about the dollar decline, making European investments look like a better bet. August was the first significant outflow from the U.S. financial markets in over five years; it will continue.

Fed’s work is cut out

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice already, by a total of 75 bps. The Fed statement was tough, but no one is denying the weakness in the economy and it is likely to force another rate cut, most likely early next year. The Fed is right to be concerned about inflation, especially given the falling dollar and its impact on consumer prices. But in the short run, recession is the bigger risk. Even if there were no election in 2008, the Fed would have to focus on real growth—at least for a few quarters.

The Magic of Math

Check this out......
1 x 8 + 1 = 9
12 x 8 + 2 = 98
123 x 8 + 3 = 987
1234 x 8 + 4 = 9876
12345 x 8 + 5 = 98765
123456 x 8 + 6 = 987654
1234567 x 8 + 7 = 9876543
12345678 x 8 + 8 = 98765432
123456789 x 8 + 9 = 987654321

Now Look at this ......
1 x 9 + 2 = 11
12 x 9 + 3 = 111
123 x 9 + 4 = 1111
1234 x 9 + 5 = 11111
12345 x 9 + 6 = 111111
123456 x 9 + 7 = 1111111
1234567 x 9 + 8 = 11111111
12345678 x 9 + 9 = 111111111
123456789 x 9 +10= 1111111111

What do you think now ......
9 x 9 + 7 = 88
98 x 9 + 6 = 888
987 x 9 + 5 = 8888
9876 x 9 + 4 = 88888
98765 x 9 + 3 = 888888
987654 x 9 + 2 = 8888888
9876543 x 9 + 1 = 88888888
98765432 x 9 + 0 = 888888888

And Finally.....
1 x 1 = 1
11 x 11 = 121
111 x 111 = 12321
1111 x 1111 = 1234321
11111 x 11111 = 123454321
111111 x 111111 = 12345654321
1111111 x 1111111 = 1234567654321
11111111 x 11111111 = 123456787654321
111111111 x 111111111 = 12345678987654321

Rise of the Oil Barrel

The price of crude oil has been on a roller-coaster ride, hitting a record $89 per barrel in October before drifting back a little as I write this. And, in the past year, oil has been as low as $50 per barrel. One could argue that the economics of supply and demand would imply a drop in prices as the global economy becomes more energy-efficient and economic growth slows in much of the industrial West. But demand elsewhere and the politics of the Middle East and other oil-producing regions suggest that prices could just as well rise sharply. When Goldman came out with a report last year that oil prices will touch $120 per barrel, Wall Street seemed to laugh it off. Now…not so anymore. With Turkey voting for military incursions into Iraq and the continuing dollar slide with no recovery in sight, well, it might just happen.

The one certainty is continuing uncertainty. Oil prices will probably remain volatile, creating problems not only for the global economy but also for the industrial sectors that are heavy users of crude and refined products, especially airlines, chemicals, electrical utilities, and freight transportation. The worldwide demand for oil will no doubt increase rapidly over the long term because of the strength of the Asian economies. Chinese energy use continues to grow at a double-digit annual pace, and China is rapidly catching up with the U.S. in total energy consumption. India is smaller in terms of total GDP and energy usage, but its appetite for oil is growing nearly as rapidly. So, even with a weaker U.S. economy and sluggish growth in Japan and Europe, energy demand should eventually rise. Although the developed countries can probably hold energy use constant, rolling it back is difficult. The lack of compliance with the carbon emissions goals set forth in the Kyoto accords proves that it is not easy to walk the walk.

The demand side is only half of the equation, however. The other is supply. Oil's role as a financially traded instrument may have exploded in the past few years, but ultimately, it's still a physical commodity. Finding oil and natural gas is becoming more and more difficult. Exploration companies have already looked in the easy places. Now they're eyeing sites that are more difficult to operate in, either politically or geographically. Deep-sea deposits can be tapped, but at a high price. How far and fast energy prices will rise is uncertain, but the direction seems all too clear.

Memories...

Dear Tech Support

Email to Tech Support

Dear Tech Support,
Last year I upgraded from Boyfriend 5.0 to Husband 1.0 and noticed a distinct slow down in the overall performance, particularly in the Flower and Jewellery applications, which operated flawlessly under Boyfriend 5.0.

In addition, Husband 1.0 un-installed many other valuable programs, such as Romance 9.5 and Personal Attention 6.5 and then installed undesirable programs such as: Football 5.0, Rugby 4.3 and Cricket 3.0. Conversation 8.0 no longer runs; it simply crashes the system. I've tried running Nagging 5.3 to fix these problems, to no avail.

What can I do?

Signed,
Desperate

Reply from Tech Support

Dear Desperate,
First keep in mind, Boyfriend 5.0 is an Entertainment Package, while Husband 1.0 is an Operating System.Try entering the command: C:/I-THOUGHT-YOU-LOVED-ME to download Tears 6.2, which should automatically install Guilt 3.0. If that application works as designed, Husband 1.0 should then automatically run the applications Jewellery 2.0 and Flowers 3.5. But remember, overuse of the above application can cause Husband 1.0 to default to Grumpy Silence 2.5, Happy Hour 7.0, or Beer 6.1. WARNING: Beer 6.1 is a very nasty program that will create Snoring Loudly.

CAUTION: Whatever you do, DO NOT install Mother-in-law. This is not a supported application and will crash Husband 1.0.In summary, Husband 1.0 is a great program, but it does have limited memory and cannot learn new applications quickly. You might consider buying additional software to improve memory and performance. I personally would recommend Hot Food 3.0 and Lingerie 7.7.

Good Luck,
Tech Support

Ram Sethu – The bridge under shallow waters

Adam's Bridge a.k.a Ram Setu both meaning "Rama’s Bridge" in India, is a chain of limestone shoals between the islands of Mannar and Ramesharam. There is enough geological evidence to indicate that this bridge acted as former land connection between India and Srilanka. The bridge consists of a series of parallel ledges of sandstone and conglomeration, that is hard at the surface and grows coarse and soft as it descends to sandy banks. In the 19th century, there were two prevalent theories explaining the structure. One considered it to be formed by a process of accretion and rising of the land, while the other surmised that it was formed by the breaking away of Sri Lanka from the Indian subcontinent.

The Project
First conceptualized in 1860 and finally after fourteen proposals and 144 years, the Indian govt. approved a multi-million dollar project which is called the ‘Sethusamudram Shipping Canal Project’. The purpose of the project is to create a shipping channel across the straight. The plan is to dredge the shallow ocean floor to create enough leeway allowing ships to pass through the channel instead of having to go around Sri Lanka.

What is the Issue?
Though there are arguments for and against the project – which have their own merits, there are various fundamental issues which are not yet addressed by the government.

Arguments for the project include boosting international trade by saving nearly 30 hours' shipping time by cutting over 400 km off the shipping voyage (as the ships don’t have to go around Sri Lanka anymore). Since the government is unable to prove any real benefits, its argument primarily centers on just a single point – a perceived future economic boost and strengthening the Indian Navy. Considering the cost of the project, which is a whooping 2600 crores, it seems a bit premature with to go ahead with so many unknowns.

Arguments against the project also give us some real issues to think about. The opposition against the project voices concerns related to its impact on the environment and damage that will be caused by dredging the area. Also, potential loss of Thorium deposits and increased risk of damage due to future Tsunamis is something that cannot be overlooked. The opponents, of which, there are many also claim that it will cause tremendous damage to the local ecology, marine wealth and affect the livelihoods of the fishing communities along the coasts of southern India and Sri Lanka. Besides, they say, no one is quite sure where the Indian government will put all that sand and silt it digs up.

The Religious Angle
There are millions who believe that the Ram Setu was actually the bridge built by Lord Ram with the help of Hanuman and his friends using floating stones and Rama’s army marched over this bridge to destroy the evil regime of Ravana. Apart from the Ramayana, the Mahabharata also refers to the continued protection of Nala Setu following Lord Rama's command. Kalidasa's Raghuvamsham also refers to the Setu. So does the Skanda Purana (III 1.2.1-114), the Vishnu Purana (IV 4.40-49), the Agni Purana (V-XI), the Brahma Purana (138.1-40). No one can doubt the religious significance that Ram Setu has in Hinduism.

Picture Taken by NASA

The Political Angle
The Centre has told the Supreme Court that while filing an affidavit, that there is no evidence to prove the existence of characters or events in the Ramayana and the Ram Sethu is not a man-made structure. The govt took a stand that since it is only a natural formation, it could be demolished and the canal can be built. This sparked off a controversy of mammoth proportions as the Center was seen questioning the existence of Lord Ram. DMK’s chiefs comments that Ram did/never existed made this worse embarrassing the government and pitted the rest of the country against TN.

The UPA been unable to convince the anti-Sethusamudram groups on any count. Its assurances and denials and justifications have only made matters worse. At the same time, since it needs the support of the DMK, it is trying to pacify one and all. In the recent days, the matter took an uglier turn when DMK activists attacked the TN BJP headquarters and injured BJP party men. The Congress for its part is trying to distance itself from the DMK and its statements.

Whether it was a natural formation or really built by Lord Ram one will never know and one can never prove otherwise, but either ways the Ram Setu is undoubtedly considered by millions to be a part of Indian heritage and preserving it should be on the mind of every Indian. While even the Christians and Muslims in India have never questioned it, it is sad to see our politicians making a mockery out of it.

Given below are statements made by our politicians.

Karunanidhi: "Some say there was a person over 17 lakh years ago. His name was Ram. Do not touch the bridge (Ram Sethu) constructed by him... From which engineering college did he graduate? Is there any proof of this?"

Vilas Vedanti: “Fatwa against Karunanidhi”

Rajnath Singh: ``Given the manner in which the relationship between the Congress and the Left Front is increasingly getting strained, it clearly indicates that Lok Sabha elections are no longer far away,’’

Jayanti Natarajan: "The BJP is in the midst of an existential crisis. The lotus is wilting. They are not just downwardly mobile, they are in an irreversible decline”

One thing is clear, the common man is not being heard.