Iran - All (Nu)Clear

With the recently announced deal with Turkey, Iran just outmaneuvered the US, not to mention the UN and everyone else who has been calling for more tough actions. Iran has agreed to ship 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Turkey, where it would be held. In exchange, it is entitled to 120 kg of uranium enriched to 20 percent to use in a Tehran medical research reactor that produces isotopes for cancer treatment. It is interesting that Iran rejected a similar deal in October where it was to ship 1200 kg of LEU - about 70% of stock pile at that time, but now after 6 months, Iran has continued processing and has accumulated double that quantity. It is now ready to ship out the 1200 kg, which would still allow it to keep roughly half the uranium at home...just in case. Granted the deal has many escape clauses, but at this point, the world does not have any choices.

Like it or not, Turkey and Brazil have succeeded where the five permanent members of the UN Security Council had failed. But instead of applauding the deal, the US and EU are pushing towards a fourth U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran's nuclear weapons program. Iran has already proved to the world that the sanctions will not stop its progress and has sent a strong message that, in fact every time sanctions are passed, it will speed up enrichment. Even as the sanctions creak along, at this point, it amounts to pretty much just going through the motion. Russia and China are looking for any excuse to jump off the wagon and protect their interests in Iran. They have already rejected key proposals in stopping Iran's access to international financial markets and continue to arm it with weapons. The GCC too have come together to support Iran's show of goodwill in accepting this deal and the push for sanctions this time around looks like it will clearly not have any impact.

Any effort to dealing with Iran's nuclear capability will have to include realistic expectations. Expecting Iran to give up control of its full LEU capacity is not plausible, especially when the nuclear program enjoys the support of at large part of the Iranian population. Any plan should include small steps of confidence building and Instead of threatening Iran the United States and Europe should welcome initiatives which aim to establish a platform for engagement. But with the US and EU always pushing Iran's back against the wall, Iran is left with very little options other than to continue pursuing nuclear technology. Before criticizing Iran, let’s be clear that what Iran is doing is perfectly legal within the UN framework. Iran is a signatory to the NPT and has the rights to pursue nuclear technology for civilian energy programs. Fact is, Iran has made several compromise offers in the last few years that would address any REAL concern about weapons proliferation. Iran has offered to open its nuclear program to US participation, and to sign the Additional Protocol which allows more intensive IAEA inspections (no other nuclear country has done all that) and yet the US and the West consistently ignore Iran's compromise offers and insist on an unachievable goal of "zero enrichment in Iran" which is a disregard of Iran's sovereign rights as recognized by the NPT.

The reality is that there are only two options: Iran gets nuclear weapons, or someone uses pre-emptive military force to break Iran's nuclear fuel cycle and paralyze its program, at least temporarily. There is no possibility the US will use force, despite its confused and ever-changing policy right from Bush to Obama about the military option always being "on the table." That leaves Israel attacking Iran the only option which will make it vulnerable to potential retaliation and legitimize full blown attacks from Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda and Iran. To be honest, Israel also does not look all that strong since it could not even make a dent to Hamas after it attacked it for weeks last time. In fact Hamas and Hezbollah came out stronger after they were able to withstand the full might of the Israeli army. This is one reason why even Obama has refused to be a part of any Israeli plans to attack Iran since he understands the myth of Israeli army's strength in the Arab world was put to bed when Israel went to war with Hezbollah in 2006.

Its time to wake up folks... The US, Israel and the world have to prepare to deal with a nuclear Iran. Every western country says they will do all they can to prevent this, but given the current political realities in the US, Middle East and EU, it is time for everyone to brace reality and start formulating strategies on how to deal with Iran once it goes nuclear. At this point the only thing the US and EU can do is provide security assurances to neighboring countries and promises of retaliation if Iran uses its nuclear weapons first. The simple fact of Iran possessing nuclear weapons would alone dramatically alter the Middle East balance of power. Iran does not actually have to use its capabilities to prove anything. North Korea is case and point where they torpedoed and sank the South Korean Navy ship, and Kim Jong Il has directed North Korea’s military and civilian population to prepare for war, and the only thing the US and world can do is stand by and deem the behavior "Odd".

Ultimately, the west has to understand that you cannot get a foreign country to do exactly what you want unless you can exert sufficient military or economic force to compel them. In the case of Iran, no country has that level of economic force and the disadvantages of military action far outweigh the advantages. George Bush understood this, Obama understands it and so, unfortunately, do the Iranians. That is why the world is dancing around the issue of Iran's nuclear program for years without anyone being able to take any kind of action. On the other hand, Iran is still merrily enriching uranium at levels that are approaching weapons-grade, and it isn't likely to stop anytime soon. No one should base their future plans on anything except dealing with a nuclear Iran.

Obama - The Confused Schoolboy

Obama looks like a badly distracted schoolboy. There are so many things on his "To Do" list and he increasingly looks lost all the time like a school kid who has taken on one too many classes.From healthcare to the public option, from unemployment to the economy, from immigration to the twin wars, from Iran to North Korea, from education to regulatory reforms, from domestic security to global warming and the list goes on and on. One would think that Obama has no time to even sleep tackling all these issues, but you guessed wrong. He even took a day off to go and campaign for Chicago for the Olympics (well, we know how it went by now).

Frankly, Obama is starting to bring back memories of Bush for me. The former president was so distracted that he took off on vacation whenever he had to deal with something (Bush spent 1020 days - 35% of his presidency on vacation). With Obama it’s starting to look the same now. We don’t see him in public often anymore and no one knows what he is up to. It’s going to be a year and the president has literally done nothing except talk or he really has to rethink his communication strategy to the American people.

As a presidential candidate, Obama spoke a good game on resolving the war situation and often referred to Afghanistan as “the forgotten war.” He wasn’t just talking about strategy, though he made it clear in no uncertain terms that he believed the Bush administration had badly mishandled both Iraq and Afghanistan. But now, almost after a year and the war situation is just getting worse. Public anxiety over the war is increasing by the day as the casualty count rises. And what is more dangerous is that the White House’s deliberation in not knowing what to do is playing out against a backdrop of scary pictures of life on the ground there. Looks like things have gotten worse. Where is the change?

Iran and North Korea are freely testing missiles and showcasing their nuclear technology. Heck, Iran even has a second secret nuclear facility and is dangerously coming close to declaring itself as a nuclear power. While Obama has been saying he is open to talking to Iran, they are busy testing missiles and upgrading their military. Looks like things have gotten worse. Where is the change?

Healthcare is becoming another disaster. People are confused, Lobbyists are winning and the democrats seem to be a losing the battle against republicans. Even with a democratic supermajority, it looks doubtful if any meangful and real healthcare "reform" will be passed at all....umm..Where is the change?

Immigration Reform - president said that he expects that after completing work on health care, energy and financial regulation, to draft immigration bills this year. He said plans to get the the measures passed in 2010. While nothing is being done, illegal immigration is on the rise and as strange as it may sound, it is getting more difficult to come here legally.

Educational Reform - A new education reform was announced about 6 months back. Now with all the stimulus money being spent, here we are with nothing to show. He has taken a politically promising stance, by promising to work with teachers, promoting pre-kindergarten education, grants etc.. he has spoken a great game and has clearly avoided any concrete proposals – not exactly a promising sign that real change is coming anywhere soon.

Climate change - during his UN speech Obama said his administration is "determined" to do more to address the nation's climate change obligations. But left out of the speech was the political reality the president faces in trying to keep that promise. While the House passed a sweeping climate change bill this year, it has stalled in the Senate as health care reform dominates the domestic agenda. Powerless to do anything right now, rest assured, no change is coming on this front

I am not even going to mention the ACORN mess and bad publicity Obama has been linked to. The recent videos showing some of ACORNS's workers advising people how to set up a prostitution business is def beating up his image. One up...the voter registration fraud they were accused of last year. Though Obama has no direct involvement, the fact that they are one of his biggest supporters certainly won’t go down well with the people.

What is surprising me is he is putting off making real decisions that may actually have positive impacts. There are so many czars in his administration that no one knows what the other is doing and the public is frankly clueless. He may have a talent for giving soul stirring speeches whenever his ratings fall, but he seems to be all over the place from government meddling in the housing market to the auto industry to the financial markets to the banks to the never ending Fed printing presses, to the educational reform attempts to the bailouts.

Obama needs to GET OUT of the business of business. The government needs to be the referee, not another player... and its time to actually make some changes, especially with the elections coming around next year. If Democrats lose control, forget it, the only change that is going to happen in Washington is Obama going from a president to a lame duck president.

Go(O)bama

I must admit, being a conservative and a supporter of Bush so far, Obama certainly grabbed my attention ever since he began his run for presidency. The way he ran his campaign was admirable and he never hit anyone below the belt. He always emphasized on hope and made the country feel inclusive in all his messages. I stayed up watching TV and when the winner was revealed, it was certainly a profound moment. Given the history of the country and where we have come, I was reassured that the American Dream is real and alive.

I guess the over-whelming reason Barack won is because the whole country wants someone to desperately restart the country, from the economy to the living standards, from education to health care and of course the foreign policy - everything appears to be currently broken. The country gave a clear mandate as they see in Obama what they wanted to see - Hope. No one trusts Bush anymore (even me) and the republicans were sent packing as they should have been. To Obamas credit, he had perfect execution of most of his themes and he hammered a home-run with his campaign’s ground game. McCain and Palin..Well, I won’t go there but after she shopped for $150k, I knew it was totally over for both of them.

People have voted for change - What change Obama can bring and the direction of the change remains to be seen. I will pray he is a successful president as America really needs a new direction.

Hasta La Vista…Musharraf!!!

After months of going back and forth, the Pakistani ruling coalition has began its crucial session and seem to be getting ready to impeach Gen. Musharraf for alleged misconduct, violation of the Constitution and financial irregularities and any other charges they can tack on to ensure that he is voted out. Although Musharraf has vowed to slug it out in parliament, he is expected to step down voluntarily as there are rumors of secret negotiations to give him immunity from prosecution if he does so.

The government has been mulling this move for months as Zardari and Sharif have been at loggerheads as to how to proceed with the impeachment process. Zardari’s and Sharif’s cooperation is purely driven by political missteps on both sides. PPP has historically been anti-army and once Zardari decided to work with the general at America’s urging, he immediately drew criticism. Sharif seized the opportunity and took an anti-American stance and boosted his popularity at home. The only thing they have in common is the mutual hatred they share for the general. Musharraf threw Sharif out of the country in 1999 and imprisoned Zardari for 6 years before letting him leave the country in exile. So they both have come together now realizing the only way both can survive is by ousting Musharraf first before they can get into the boxing ring to fight each other. The general for his part did not help himself by starting a war in his own backyard by asking the military to kill his own countrymen. This has made him so unpopular that Washington has decided to step back realizing that they cannot support him anymore for the risk of alienating the democratically elected government. At least a working relationship with the new government would be better and is necessarry for the US considering bin laden is probably holed up somewhere on the borders of Pakistan.

The impeachment is a numbers game. Both houses of the Pakistan’s parliament have a combined strength of 442, and the motion will have to be passed by a two-thirds majority or 295 members. The coalition claims to have enough numbers but the result will depend on the independents who could be swayed by the ISI. Though the army chief is Musharraf’s handpicked successor, it is unlikely he will intervene as he too has realized that any army intervention will only make Zardari and Sharif stronger.

At this point, it looks like Musharraf will be packing his bags and heading out of Pakistan...for good!!! The US may try to ensure he gets out of the country without facing any treason charges. Incidentally, the impeachment proceedings against Musharraf have been initiated on his birthday.

I am sure Bush must be saying Hasta La Vista…Baby!!! Or at least thinking of it.

The 7 Year Talk (That Failed)

As I was reading the papers this morning, I realized that one piece of news dominated all the papers. The global trade talks, or the so called Doha, failed after 7 years of on-again and off-again negotiations, as none of the countries could reach an understanding. But all the articles I read blamed primarily India and China. I was laughing to myself as it looks like not many people have an understanding of the real reasons of why the talks failed. Why blame India and China?? The US is probably frustrated that they are not able to impose their will on the entire world anymore given that India, China and Brazil have emerged as trading powerhouses. The Doha talks aim to open markets for farm, manufactured goods and services around the world but have struggled to overcome differences between rich and developing nations.

The issue at hand was simple. Developing countries like India and China were asked to reduce tariffs on agricultural and industrial goods, which in turn would allow developed countries like the US, France and Britain to gain access to these markets. India and China however wanted a safeguard clause that would allow them to raise the tariffs in case there was a sudden surge in imports which would threaten their farmers in the domestic market. The US wanted to set the trigger at 40% while India and China wanted it to be set at 10%. No one could agree on the SSM (Special Safeguard Mechanism) and the talks broke down.

The criticism may sting, but the two Asian giants are not likely to succumb to overseas pressure. Both countries enjoy high economic growth, thanks to overseas demand for their manufacturing and outsourcing services. One fact that no one is talking about is that in 2003, the US did the same thing i.e. they invoked a so-called “safeguard” rule to prevent an increase of Chinese textile imports that threatened to put the US manufacturers out of business. So when India and China now want the same safeguard clause, the US is refusing to accept the Chinese and Indian position. Indian and Chinese leaders also have to worry about economic hardship of their farmers as they have struggled to compete against imports from the U.S. and other countries. It's interesting that China and India are being blamed for the failure of these negotiations - the real culprits are the massive farm subsidies in the US and Europe. The playing field is heavily biased in favor of developed nations which give out subsidies to their own farmers while trying to pry open markets in poorer parts of the world. The Americans and Europeans were pretty much asking weaker countries to dismantle their own protection measures without doing the same in their own countries. I'm glad India, China and Brazil had the clout to say no.

While the US has a mere 2% of its population who are farmers (and even they are rich), India has more than 50% of its population doing agriculture and earning less than $2 a day (There are 700 million people who directly or indirectly depend on agriculture in India).China has approx. 500 Million people living in countryside with no basic amenities. Lowering tariffs and giving subsidies will pretty much bring more than half the population in these countries to their knees.

America having the biggest economy in the world was making its own rules through the WTO and was changing them as they saw fit. Again, nothing wrong with that but as China and India builds a larger economy, expect them to do the same.

Iran and Its Missiles

It appears that Iran has put out a fake photo of their recent missile launch, showing four missiles shooting through the air rather than three. Though it can’t be said with any certainty whether there is any official Iranian involvement in this drama with a funny twist, but the image released by the State showing Iran firing its missiles was “apparently digitally altered”. The fourth missile “has apparently been added in digital retouch to cover a grounded missile that may have failed during the test”. Early this week, Iran said it test fired a series of long range and medium range missiles escalating the tension over its nuclear program. I guess Iran is just trying to send a signal to the rest of the world about their capabilities but it looks like they are grossly exaggerating their strength.

I guess the whole purpose of these launches was to demonstrate Iran's capabilities and a photo showing one out of four rockets failing doesn't have the intended impact, but hey, at least we know Iran’s state media uses Photoshop.

Oh Barak!! Are You Running to the Center?

With both the DNC and RNC just over a month away, the battle lines are being drawn. However, it looks like it will be the independents who will decide who will take oath in the white house next year. Obama, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, has interestingly begun taking centrist or even hawkish positions in recent weeks on foreign policy, trade, the death penalty and other hot-button issues as he introduces himself to independent and swing voters, many of whom know little about him or have heard criticisms that he is too liberal or that he is a muslim. While Obama is making a play for centrist voters, McCain's strategy seems more geared to catering to the conservative base, as he has steadily moved to the right on a range of issues.

But as both Omaba and McCan try to appeal to the idependents, both are reversing or flip-flopping (Since that seems to be the popular term) on almost all of their policies on which they won the primaries. However, it is Obama who is beating McCain to the punch as he is moving so quickly to the center that he has irked some of his supporters, well actually a lot of his supporters.

In the primaries, Obama supported pulling out of Iraq, called the DC gun ban constitutional, backed the subjection of telecom companies to extensive lawsuits if they cooperated on terror surveillance program, opposed welfare reform, criticized free trade deals and pledged to renegotiate NAFTA and fiercely opposed it and was strongly against the death penalty.

However, he has now almost taken a different path and deviated on all his own stances. He told Fortune magazine he believes in free trade and does not want to overturn or pull out of NAFTA. On Iraq, Obama said that his upcoming trip there might lead him to refine his promise to quickly remove U.S. troops from the war and he will now listen to the general (we all know how that goes). Obama also extended his support for the government's eavesdropping program as the spy bill passed the senate today. After the Supreme Court overturned the District of Columbia's gun ban, he said he favors both an individual's right to own a gun and government's right to regulate ownership and declared himself a "supporter of the Second Amendment". Obama also became the first major- party candidate to reject public financing for the general election after earlier promises to accept it. He not only embraced but also promised to expand Bush's program to give more anti-poverty grants to religious groups, a split with Democratic orthodoxy. The most surprising stand was when he objected to the Supreme Court's decision outlawing the death penalty for child rapists, drawing attention to his support for the death penalty if used only for the "most egregious" crimes.

With today's gallop poll showing Obama leading with just 48% - 43%, I think he may be risking his reputation for truthfulness. If he loses his reputation, he certainly does not have time to gain the voters trust with just 3 months before they go to poll.

Time to Wake Up Mr.PM

India is a maze of conflicting rules, regulations and corruption that twists democracy to produce a constant squeeze on companies to appease the rules and tossing a bone here and there to the massive welfare state through taxation, employment demands and playing the old game of "west vs. east" in the political and economic arenas. I have always wondered what the current Congress govt has done for the last 4 years or so. I mean what is their real achievement. In a word, NOTHING. They can claim credit for a lot of things, but everyone knows that India's real so called economic boom started long before this govt took office.

The weak central government, which is run by an uneasy coalition between the Congress Party and the Left Front, is solely contributing to the unrest where prices are spiraling out of control and it is getting more and more difficult for the comman man to afford anything really. The inflation has jumped to 11.42% and the prices of food and manufactured products and the govt is unable to take any steps to control it...just blaming rising global oil prices. For five years starting from 2007, the Planning Commission has targeted Indian economy to grow at 9% with the last year delivering a growth of 10% . The current rise in inflation and high interest rates have already left a dent on the industry and the production growth rate of the country has substantially slowed down in the past four months. Inflation was at a modest 3% at the end of the year 2007, and is at present hovering over 11 per cent mark, the highest level in 13 years. This year the forecast for economic growth or GDP has been reduced to 7.3%.

The rising corruption is an new issue altogether that people are being forced to deal with. The 'India Corruption Study 2007', brought out by NGOs Transparency International India (TII) and Centre for Media Studies (CMS), found that about one-third of Below Poverty Line (BPL) households in the country bribed officials to avail a total of 11 services -- from police to PDS. According to the survey, which covered 22,728 households in all states and Union Territories, Rs 8,830 million (Rs 883 crore), in all, was estimated to be paid as bribe by BPL households last year. Its a shame that government officials take bribe from people who cant even make a decent living.

The Govt also has failed on the policy front. With the only aim of staying in power, the govt is totally dependant on all its so called coalition partners who all seem to be more keen on opposing everything that the govt does and threatening to pull out of the coalition. It is sad to see that the politicians are more keen to stay in the headlines rather than tackle the real problems that the country is facing. It has become amusing to read about the nuclear deal and what every party has to say about it. Indeed Mayawati from BSP took the cake when she said the deal is' Anti-Muslim'. Not sure what the deal has to do with religion but it proved there is no end in sight if Mr.Singh wants to please every tom dick and harry in the country before he actually acts. The PM, instead of leading the country is begging the various party leaders for permission to conduct the affairs of the state.

Time to wake up Mr.PM and do something real for the country, even if it means you lose support from your so called coalition partners. The drubbing you have taken in the last 4-5 states should tell you that people are in no mood to put up with the games the Congress is playing.

Talking about Inflation!!

The Indian people and the government are both quaking with fear with inflation hovering at around 8%. The people can barely make two ends meet with prices soaring, and the government knows that if prices don't fall, the government will.

But India is not the only nation grappling with rising inflation. Even people from wealthy countries are crying everyday over ever increasing prices of bread and vegetables. However, they can all thank their lucky stars cause they are sitting pretty compared to Zimbabwe.

Do you guys want to even guess the inflation rate in Zimbabwe??

355,000%!

No, it is not a typo. The inflation in Zimbabwe for the month of March/April 2008 rose to 355,000%! Yes, 355,000 per cent! It more than doubled from the February/March figure of 165,000%. Currency traders ceased operations last week on Thursday and Friday because of the free fall of the ZWD and annual inflation certainly exceeded 2 million percent.

It is indeed a miracle that the Zimbabwean economy is still surviving as the prices seem to be rising to unprecedented proportions. Inflation surged between February and March following the sudden rise in money supply that flooded the economy to finance the 2008 elections.

The economy is in real free fall right now as inflation accelerates rapidly making life almost unbearable. It is predicted that by the end of the month, prices could be doubling everyday. Almost 80% of the nation is unemployed. The Zimbabwean central bank has introduced $500 million bearer cheques (or currency notes) for the public, and $5 billion, $25 billion, $50 billion agro-cheques for farmers. As the consequence of this devaluation, huge anomalies are developing in the system and prices, charges, service fees, etc can be dramatically lower than the next simply because the organizations have not had time to adjust their costings or figures.

Mr. Mugabe has certainly upped the ante by coming out and publicly saying he will not give up power even if he loses. He has openly promised 'War' if the opposition wins. That indeed poses serious questions as to weather the economy can be contained anytime soon. A sausage sandwich sells for Zimbabwean $50 million and a 15-kg bag of potatoes cost Zimbabwean $260 million.

Phew!!!

And the Campaign Continues...

It looks like the democratic primary race is over. After last night's overwhelming win in North Carolina and surprising close contest in Indiana for Obama, it looks increasingly difficult for Clinton to convince people why she is still running.

Oh..what a difference a week makes. April 28 was only last week but it feels like ages ago. That was the day Obama got hit by a one-two punch. First, his former pastor dominated the airwaves with his offensive rant. The same day brought news that Hillary had decided to join McCain in calling for a summer gas tax holiday, sure to be popular with voters angry about high costs at the pump. But in the end Obama seems to have come out on top as he took a more rational principal stand on the gas tax issue backed by the countries economists and made Clinton look like a political opportunist as she aligned with McCain.

Well, with only 6 contests remaining and a reducing pool of voters to help Clinton, there are potentially no more game changers left to turn the tide in her favor. Last night's results were decisive on their own: They offered Clinton her last, best chance to turn the tables on her rival, and she didn't even come close. To be sure, Obama is still struggling to win some demographic groups, notably blue-collar white voters, who are a key component of the Democratic base.

The pressure is on Clinton now to convince the super-delegates, who are the only ones who can change the game, why she is better than Obama. With a lead in pledged delages, popular votes, number of states won and caucuses, Obama seems too close to the finish line not to win the nomination. And last nights results diminished Clinton's rationale for urging Democratic superdelegates to override all his leads and give the nomination to her.

Well, the campaigns may continue, however it looks like the contest is over!!

Big Trouble in Little China

China is booming. Every investment turns to gold. The country seems to have unlimited cheap labor at its disposal. GDP growth seems to be 10+% year after year. Chinese stocks trade at insane multiples and a record number of investors seem to get into the market every passing day. Beijing and Shanghai seem to be building more skyscrapers than New York. Lo and Behold,
China has started shaking the world with its prowess in manufacturing, On paper, everything looks great and it looks like China is all set to take over the world.

Not so soon my friend. China's problems are just beginning. It has certainly made the world take notice, no doubt. But just as people are starting to look at China, they are realizing the enormous problems that come in dealing with a country whose government is as mysterious as its culture. Not all is rosy. China has serious problems with its environmental resources, severe pollution, and institutionalized corruption within the government, the legal system, the police force, and the media.

The Chinese culture maybe 3000 years old, but the Country has opened up only in the last 30 years. China has gone on a mass industrialization rampage and the unfortunate side effect has been the startling revelations of the food scandals (among others) and how China cuts all corners with obvious disregard to quality and human life.

Shoddy products being manufactured in china has emerged as a global concern, with many countries increasingly worried by the dangers of importing products from China. As more and more embarrassing stories come out, the country is scrambling to (or at least claiming) show the world that it was serious about improving the safety of Chinese products and is a responsible player. So they did something interesting this week.

China executed its former top food and drug regulator on Tuesday for taking bribes.

It is a bit extreme, or is it??? China carries out more court-ordered executions than the rest of the world combined, according to human rights groups.

However, what has come as a bigger shock is, while the country is answering its buyers, news that their own high-speed maglev train, running between Wuhan and Guangzhou ...well, seems to have a few problems has sent the bells ringing. So relax, they are screwing themselves too.

And me worry?? Nah, we have just seen the tip of the iceberg. There is still a long way to go!!!

Indian Presidential Race

The Left's are Wimps, The Right's are Crazy

Left: Shivraj Patil??
Kalam: I will continue….I will continue….
Right: Sherkhawat??
Kalam: Can I continue for god’s sake??
Left: Laloooo??
Kalam: I will continue The presidents office needs a good statesman
Right: What about Amitabh or Rajini??
Kalam: Ok, I am quitting the race now
Left: Ah, Pratibha Patil then?
Right: Perfect choice. She is old, cluesless, talks to spirits and is totally under the control of “The Madam”.

It is interesting to see that the one person who cannot be at the helm of the country (henceforth "The Madam"), still undoubtedly wields the power that no Indian has. I am actually not surprised that the presidential candidate is someone whom the madam has personally recommended and there is just really one reason she has been picked - She is a staunch Gandhi/Nehru family loyalist and thereby has proved her worth to the highest office of the nation. WHAT!!!!!!

As sad as it may sound, all the numbers look good for Pratibha Patil and she is well on her way to create history (on paper) to become the first woman to hold the country's highest office (does not matter she will do nothing while in office).

Neither is she a political heavyweight nor have Indians heard of her before her name started doing the rounds. Sure, her credentials include her brother being accused of murder, she has defaulted more than 17 crores loan out of a bank, she is a defendant is a class action lawsuit and has swindled 5 crores from a trust she was responsible for. But come on, what are her real qualifications? What has she accomplished in Indian politics? Has she shaped or framed any policies which have been implemented? What has she done for Indian politics apart from being a do nothing cabinet minister?? Does she have any influence over other political heavyweights? Has she driven economic or other development in her state?? Can she accomplish anything at all in the 5 years she willl be in office?

Sadly, the answers seems to elude everyone and I for one am shocked how all the parties are engaging in dirty politics to ensure their candidate wins at any cost. Considering the fact that it is Abdul Kalam's shoes that she is going to fill, it almost makes me cringe that while Kalam has openly said he is ready to take on another term, he surprisingly has won very few friends supporting him (Go Jayalalitha!!). While the people of the country overwhelmingly want him to continue (polls indicate he has 80+% support of the country), it means nothing.

Here is a fact which is known to very few people. The President of India is elected by the ruling party. Not the people of india, not the educated man, not the masses, not the people who help elect the government. Just a few people in the ruling party, in this case the madam, single-handedly, has the power to select the president of the country to represent more than a billion people. Ridiculous huh??

Just when India is entering the most important economic phase in history, just when the entire world is turning its eyes towards India, it is indeed sad to see the so called largest democracy showing the world how the political games are played and in a strange way proving that the people's opinion (actually a billion opinions) dont really count. This presidential election will no doubt go down as one of the murkiest in history and very few indians are genuinely going to be able to respect their president for the next 5 years.

Heck, it is public knowledge that Pratibha Patil was not even Congress' first choice as a candidate, but I guess the only qualification that one requires in order to rise to political prominence in India is keep sucking up to the Ghandhi family all your life and maybe, just maybe when you are turn 70+, you can become the President or even the Prime Minister of India.

Go Ahead, Jump the Fence!!!

Did we just give the green light to keep jumping the fence. Apparently we just did...

So here we go again. Like many of you, I picked up the newspaper and was really disappointed to see that the immigration bill died in the senate and will not be debated anymore. What is everyone thinking?? I don’t agree with anything the Bush administration has done so far, but after 7 years he finally comes up with one good plan and it gets killed!!!!!!!!!!!

Booooooooooooo to all of you guys who are against CIR (Comprehensive Immigration Reforms). The congress is only 6 months old and its already become a "Do Nothing" congress.

Fact: There are close to 13 Million illegal residents within the country.

Fact: As per the law of the land, it is not illegal to be here illegally (funny huh?? Well, it is considered only a civil crime)

Fact: There is no way to trace where these millions of illegal people are and there is nothing to stop more people from coming in the future.

Fact: Say what you want, but at least 70% of these people are latino’s

So we can all either accept the fact that these people are not leaving (come on guys, do you seriously think you can trace and deport or convince 13 million people to leave) or wait till the day 13 million becomes say 20-25 million (you know its going to happen with each passing day you refuse to address the issue) and then it becomes much much more difficult to tackle.

I am not getting into the details of the bill (and the 100’s of amendments everybody wants), but some of the important points for everybody to consider before they oppose is:

• The 12 Million undocumented workers can come forward immediately and receive probationary legal status (What is there to oppose in that??? Hey, if I had 12 million people in my backyard, and I don’t even know where they, you bet I want to know who/where they are)
• Bill creates a four-year, renewable "Z" visa for those present within the U.S. unlawfully before Jan. 1, 2007
• Undocumented immigrants may adjust status to lawful permanent residence once they pay $5,000 in fees and fines and their head of household returns to their home country.
• No green cards for "Z" visa holders will be processed until "triggers" for border security and workplace enforcement have been met, estimated to take 18 months.
• Processing of green cards for holders of "Z" visas would begin after clearing an existing backlog, which is expected to take eight years. (which means, it will be at least 15 years before these people get green cards and 20 years before they can become American’s). Heck, many of them won’t even be alive in 20 years.

And before any of these people can apply to become Green Card holders, the border security must be enforced (This part is especially for people who oppose, so take your heads out of your A$$ and listen):

• 20,000 new border patrol agents will be hired and 300 miles of vehicle barriers and 370 miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border will have to be completed.
• All that ground-based radar, camera towers, unmanned aerial vehicles and supporting systems etc. will be funded and implemented.

So in essence, border security will be enforced before any of the undocumented (ok, illegal) people can be granted permanent residence.

Once border security has been enforced, a guest worker program will be established (“Y” Visa), under which people can come in LEGALLY to work in the United States.

Still opposing the bill????

The fact is these people contribute to our economy (or its probably a wash, depending on how you look at it), but if we legalize them, it certainly gives hope to millions. And come on, the US has its lowest level of unemployment (hovering around 4%), and we have managed to absorb 12 million workers into the country. All senators talk about strengthening border security and building a fence and then legalizing, but what I don’t get is, that’s what this bill states, then why are you opposing? Do you think that by putting if off, you have solved the issue??

Fact: 13 million people will actually contribute to the economy (TAXES!!!! I am sure the IRS is a strong supporter of the Bill)
Fact: All of these people (X or Y Visas), will have to undergo background checks and criminal checks, so we can actually catch the guys who are committing crime
Fact: You can actually control crime, including stopping drug smuggling (Hey, you at least know where they are, so go and catch them)
Fact: If people have hope and they will try and come here legally, (ming chu will not be coming in a container and Immanuel will not jump the fence risking their lives as a first resort), and we might actually be able to control the flow of people we cannot trace.
Fact: You have just messed up a CIR amendment on stopping the H1-B and L1 visa abuse (Too big a topic for discussion on this one)
Fact: The heavily Latino underclass of unskilled, poorly-paid U.S. workers will be free from the shackles of unequal treatment as a human beings. (You can deny it, but it is happening!!)
Fact: There will be millions more coming in illegally before you address this issue again.

American’s get so emotional when it comes to this issue that they fail to see rational benefits if the bill is passed. I am not blindly defending the bill, of course its perfect by no means, but it’s the most realistic bill I have seen in recent years, which can actually work. Right now, the system is broken and beyond repair (trust me, we are coming back to this issue when the 13 mil becomes 25 mil) and at the very least, this bill creates a system where we can control the flow and reduce crime.

All the conservatives are bloating that they have a victory in defeating the bill. But my friends, trust me, by killing the bill (thereby the debate to see if it’s good or bad), do you know you have just told all the people looking to come here for a better life .“You want to come to the USA, great, but wait, we have just made it complicated to come into the US the right way if you are not educated, so go ahead Pablo, just come here illegally, its much easier”

Myth: Illegal aliens cost the American taxpayers tens of billions of dollars in social services, primarily in the areas of healthcare and education. No they do not. Go back again and check your facts.

Final Fact: These people are going nowheres Jose.

So you can either let them pay taxes and live here legally in peace, or encourage them to jump the fence.

But wait, Oh Ok…Apparently we just told them to jump (sigh!!)