Recession Time

Job Search under Obama's Policy :)

Iran - All (Nu)Clear

With the recently announced deal with Turkey, Iran just outmaneuvered the US, not to mention the UN and everyone else who has been calling for more tough actions. Iran has agreed to ship 1,200 kg of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Turkey, where it would be held. In exchange, it is entitled to 120 kg of uranium enriched to 20 percent to use in a Tehran medical research reactor that produces isotopes for cancer treatment. It is interesting that Iran rejected a similar deal in October where it was to ship 1200 kg of LEU - about 70% of stock pile at that time, but now after 6 months, Iran has continued processing and has accumulated double that quantity. It is now ready to ship out the 1200 kg, which would still allow it to keep roughly half the uranium at home...just in case. Granted the deal has many escape clauses, but at this point, the world does not have any choices.

Like it or not, Turkey and Brazil have succeeded where the five permanent members of the UN Security Council had failed. But instead of applauding the deal, the US and EU are pushing towards a fourth U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran's nuclear weapons program. Iran has already proved to the world that the sanctions will not stop its progress and has sent a strong message that, in fact every time sanctions are passed, it will speed up enrichment. Even as the sanctions creak along, at this point, it amounts to pretty much just going through the motion. Russia and China are looking for any excuse to jump off the wagon and protect their interests in Iran. They have already rejected key proposals in stopping Iran's access to international financial markets and continue to arm it with weapons. The GCC too have come together to support Iran's show of goodwill in accepting this deal and the push for sanctions this time around looks like it will clearly not have any impact.

Any effort to dealing with Iran's nuclear capability will have to include realistic expectations. Expecting Iran to give up control of its full LEU capacity is not plausible, especially when the nuclear program enjoys the support of at large part of the Iranian population. Any plan should include small steps of confidence building and Instead of threatening Iran the United States and Europe should welcome initiatives which aim to establish a platform for engagement. But with the US and EU always pushing Iran's back against the wall, Iran is left with very little options other than to continue pursuing nuclear technology. Before criticizing Iran, let’s be clear that what Iran is doing is perfectly legal within the UN framework. Iran is a signatory to the NPT and has the rights to pursue nuclear technology for civilian energy programs. Fact is, Iran has made several compromise offers in the last few years that would address any REAL concern about weapons proliferation. Iran has offered to open its nuclear program to US participation, and to sign the Additional Protocol which allows more intensive IAEA inspections (no other nuclear country has done all that) and yet the US and the West consistently ignore Iran's compromise offers and insist on an unachievable goal of "zero enrichment in Iran" which is a disregard of Iran's sovereign rights as recognized by the NPT.

The reality is that there are only two options: Iran gets nuclear weapons, or someone uses pre-emptive military force to break Iran's nuclear fuel cycle and paralyze its program, at least temporarily. There is no possibility the US will use force, despite its confused and ever-changing policy right from Bush to Obama about the military option always being "on the table." That leaves Israel attacking Iran the only option which will make it vulnerable to potential retaliation and legitimize full blown attacks from Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qaeda and Iran. To be honest, Israel also does not look all that strong since it could not even make a dent to Hamas after it attacked it for weeks last time. In fact Hamas and Hezbollah came out stronger after they were able to withstand the full might of the Israeli army. This is one reason why even Obama has refused to be a part of any Israeli plans to attack Iran since he understands the myth of Israeli army's strength in the Arab world was put to bed when Israel went to war with Hezbollah in 2006.

Its time to wake up folks... The US, Israel and the world have to prepare to deal with a nuclear Iran. Every western country says they will do all they can to prevent this, but given the current political realities in the US, Middle East and EU, it is time for everyone to brace reality and start formulating strategies on how to deal with Iran once it goes nuclear. At this point the only thing the US and EU can do is provide security assurances to neighboring countries and promises of retaliation if Iran uses its nuclear weapons first. The simple fact of Iran possessing nuclear weapons would alone dramatically alter the Middle East balance of power. Iran does not actually have to use its capabilities to prove anything. North Korea is case and point where they torpedoed and sank the South Korean Navy ship, and Kim Jong Il has directed North Korea’s military and civilian population to prepare for war, and the only thing the US and world can do is stand by and deem the behavior "Odd".

Ultimately, the west has to understand that you cannot get a foreign country to do exactly what you want unless you can exert sufficient military or economic force to compel them. In the case of Iran, no country has that level of economic force and the disadvantages of military action far outweigh the advantages. George Bush understood this, Obama understands it and so, unfortunately, do the Iranians. That is why the world is dancing around the issue of Iran's nuclear program for years without anyone being able to take any kind of action. On the other hand, Iran is still merrily enriching uranium at levels that are approaching weapons-grade, and it isn't likely to stop anytime soon. No one should base their future plans on anything except dealing with a nuclear Iran.

Speculating Fear

There are all sorts of reasons over what caused the crash last week, but real question is how can the market go, on a random Thursday afternoon, completely insane? Everyone is looking for someone to blame. But what made the crash on May 6th so absolutely shocking is the market dropped close to 1000 points in a few minutes… I mean in a few MINUTES!!!! Between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. the Dow lost over 900 points before dramatically bouncing back about 600 points.

One thing is for sure, as the trading volume soared, data systems across the stock market began to get clogged. By 2:37 p.m., the overload seemed to have taken its toll on the NYSE's ARCA electronic-trading system. The bid/ask prices got out of control and the price of stocks were going insane. Accenture went from trading at around 40 dollars a share all the way down to one cent before bouncing back. Nasdaq detected what it felt was questionable information in the data and sent out a message saying it would no longer route quotes to ARCA. This step—known as declaring "self-help"—doesn't happen often among the major exchanges. By evening however, all exchanges in a rare coordinated manner put out a statement saying "All trades executed between 2:40 PM and 3:00 PM that increased more than 60% or decreased more than 60% away from the consolidated last print in that security at 2:40 or immediately prior" will be cancelled." Obviously this decision will not be open to appeal but while Nasdaq and others canceled trades on more than 200 largely NYSE-listed companies whose shares fell or rose more than 60 percent, investors unlucky enough to have sold depressed shares of other companies that fell less have little recourse and those who made money by buying at the bottom and made less than 60% can rejoice at others expense. Exchanges have never been blamed for losses, but my guess is this will be tested in courts this time around.

So far, a lot of people have been blamed. But even after a couple of days, there is no real rational explanation as to what went really wrong and caused the drop. There are theories, but no real answers yet!!

So what are the theories circling around?

• Fat Finger Issue - It has been widely suggested that a "fat finger trade" was responsible for triggering the panic. A trader entered a "b" for billion instead of an "m" for million in a trade involving Procter & Gamble. No confirmation yet but after a few days, this explanation possibly looks untrue
• Computer Glitch - There were many erroneous trades due to bad pricing, but the systems of course do not know that and did one thing lead to another and the systems get out of control?? Anybody’s guess at this point
• Stop Orders - There were 1000's of stop orders which got triggered due to the market breaking certain levels. Did a series of stop loss orders trigger a downward spiral maybe?
• European Debt Crisis - Greece definitely contributed to markets going down, but it is unlikely to be the sole cause that led to the all out assault on the markets
• Just plain Fear and Panic - There is also the possibility that this was a real financial panic. There are huge concerns about what is going on in general with the debt levels and the currency markets are fluctuating wildly. The Dow was already down several hundred points even before the massive plunge took place. The reality is that there is a lot of fear in the financial markets right now. But if it was a real panic, then why did the Dow bounce back so quickly?
• HTF - More than 60% of today’s trading is done electronically, so could High Frequency trading have been the cause for what happened? But if it was just high-frequency traders bailing out, why wouldn't [that drop] happen on every stock? It just doesn't add up.
• Hacking - Implausible without proof, but possible. It does sound farfetched, but hey, till now the exchanges have never been held responsible for the losses. So did someone hack into NYSE and purposefully create this mayhem not to mention walking away will a ton of money and a big smile as others are scrambling around to understand what went on.

As more details of last Thursday's collapse become clear, the picture is one of a highly rare confluence of events, some linked, some unrelated, that exposed weaknesses in the stock market large and small. But the only interesting thing here is the catalyst that stopped the fall. Whatever caused the market to crash stopped after a point which led to the reversal. So what was the catalyst?? I doubt anyone can really get to the bottom of this for a long time to come.

Blagojevich - Governor Goofball

Okay, here's what caught my eye during season 3 of Celebrity Apprentice - Guv Blago. He just completely cracked me up! If Blago hoped to reform his criminal image by appearing on Celebrity Apprentice, it did not exactly work out that way. Reality TV is all about entertainment and Rod Blagojevich may just be the biggest buffoon in reality TV history. He just walked around as clueless as clueless can be with his goofy grin on. Ignorance must truly be bliss because this guy seemingly has no skills whatsoever and is caught up in a huge political scandal, yet walks around like he just ate up a huge bowl of sunshine. What surprised me is how Trump constantly promoted him and kept complementing him at every opportunity he got about how tough the Gov is. I wonder what the voters of Illinois — especially the ones that voted for him — think when they see how incompetent he is.

But I absolutely do not hate on Blago. Because all I want on a Sunday night from TV is to be entertained and as far as that goes, oh boy, he was the most entertaining person I have seen in years. And after watching the last few episodes without Blago, I am definitely not getting much laughs anymore on Sunday night. And in the defense of Blago as a goofball and reality TV superstar, I would like to present the following exhibits into evidence:

Exhibit A: I was honestly shocked at his Computer Skills. I don't know what was more awesome, the fact that he did not know how to turn on a computer, did not know how to put a DVD into a computer, knew nothing about email or the fact that it took him 30 minutes to type a few lines in word.

Exhibit B: What stunned me even more was he did not even know how to use a cell phone with speaker turned on. I almost fell off my chair laughing when his team mates were speaking on one end and the Guv was staring at the phone like it was a brick. I mean is he for real? To top it all, he openly asked what is a text message and admitted he did not know how to text and then fell asleep. Certainly a golden moment in reality TV history.

Exhibit C: The ability to turn any conversation into how he Was a fantastic governor. This guy never lets up! And why should he when he yields such unintentionally humorous results? In a matter of seconds — seconds! — He always goes from discussing the task to a list of all his amazing accomplishments as the Gov: Healthcare for children! Preschool for all! No raising taxes! Health care for seniors! The guy is a walking campaign ad. And yet I simply cannot get enough of him.

Exhibit D: My favorite quote "We're prematurely ejaculating. We need more foreplay". My second favorite quote was when it was revealed he would be getting on a plane “I don’t need a passport do I.” (Did he think he was getting a vacation in the Maldives? and then he got on the plane and went to sleep :) and finally on cooking for the celebrity-run diner challenge: "I didn't cook at all when I was governor. I was cooking up results for people."

Exhibit E: Every time Trump asks him who should be fired in his opinion, I am constantly amazed at how he keeps talking for 10 minutes and keeps beating around the bush and never actually answered the question. Guess this is the number one pre-requisite for politicians and he just proved it over and over again.

Exhibit F: The constant hand shaking. Looks like life for him is clearly one long campaign trail. Doesn’t matter if people recoil in horror or start yelling at him about how he should go to prison — he still wants to work the crowd. And I loved the way he viewed New York as one big vote base. It takes him approximately three hours to walk a single block as he goes and aggressively searches out everyone to say hi and kept swearing at his innocence. In television history, I have never seen anyone work a room, street, alley, elevator or storefront like our Blago did.

What else can I say.. When he was on the show, the celebrity apprentice was certainly entertainment at its best. I cannot get over the moments when he just walked around the street of New York and chatted up random people saying "Thank you, I appreciate it. I did nothing wrong" !!!!

Maoism to Terrorism

Who is a bigger threat to India, the homegrown Maoists or terrorist groups across the border that want to destroy India?? What’s the difference really. It looks like both have the same goal - To destroy peace and create terror within India.

India’s Maoist insurgency has taken on a new face altogether and the evidence is mounting. In one of their boldest attacks yet, at least 350 Maoist guerrillas attacked a convoy and killed 76 armed policemen. This is clearly the worst loss in the four-decade-long conflict. After some digging I found that their roots go back to a 1967 peasant uprising in the West Bengali village of Naxalbari—hence their name, Naxalites—the Maoists have pretty much become a full fledged terrorist organization posing a bigger threat than any other Pak based terror group. They have an estimated 14,000 full-time fighters more than any other terrorist outfit and loosely control pretty much the entire jungle areas of central and eastern India where the state is hardly present. Last year 998 people were killed in Maoist-related conflict. This year could be even bloodier and is sure to surpass that number easily.

India's Maoist rebels also easily top the list of the worst human rights offenders among the myriad of insurgent groups in the country and the Asian Centre for Human Rights, which brought out the report "Torture in India, 2010", also noted the total number of reported torture cases had risen between the years 2000 and 2008 in the country where Maoists torture and kill anyone and everyone they even remotely suspect of providing information on them to the authorities. The govt deployment of an additional 15,000 centrally trained troops to the worst-affected states, taking the total to around 75,000 still seems too late for a vast area home to 450m people, this is still a tiny force. Moreover, properly trained state-level officers, who know the local language and conditions, have a much better counterinsurgency record. The clearest example is in Andhra Pradesh where, through better policing and generous development schemes, the insurgency has recently been greatly weakened.

What is more insulting is that the attack on the police personnel was an emphatic response from the rebels to the central government’s latest offer of peace talks. The Home minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, nowadays seems to be relaxing at home, while the Maoists loot and extort freely, seems to be in denial (or just weak) in his response and is giving speeches that they are all Indian citizens and force wont be used against them. Well, Mr. Home Minister and the entire Congress govt, while you say all Naxals are Indian Citizens and no army action will be taken to shut them down, with what face is the Indian government talking to Pakistan and asking them to take action against terror groups within POK. Are they are not Pakistani citizens by the same line of reasoning? The whole world is watching and the best India can do is adopt a double standard. How can we expect Pak to take us seriously when our home minister and Air Force chief give public statements that Army won’t use force or undertake Ariel attacks because these terrorists are Indian citizens.

Complacency is partly to blame as until recently few state-level politicians seemed to take the groups threat seriously. Politically, it is a chaos as well. Maoists have their own party (since merging their two main factions in 2004—to form the Communist Party of India -Maoist, under Ganapathi and alarmingly are seen as a party at a national level and they even back many politicians. Even Shibu Soren, chief minister of Maoist-racked Jharkhand, won an election last year with the guerrillas’ support and is predictably reluctant to fight them. This needs to stop and they need to be recognized as a terrorist outfit and any politicians in cahoots with them should be made an example of nationally. It is a shame that we always react to such groups only in the face of some disaster like when LTTE took out our PM or when IA plans was hijacked by LeT Terrorists.

A lot of national tragedies linked to terrorism have hit India in the recent years and the Govt is starting to look very weak when it comes to National security. Wake up Congress and bring out the guns, no need to negotiate with these terrorists and stop pleading with them to put down their arms. Maoist violence and jihadi terrorism are two sides of the same coin and Nationalities should never matter when it comes to dealing with them. If we don’t defend our own country, how can we expect other nations to help us defend ourselves.

Little Maestro

Hand of God

5 years to the day...57 today

Wondering how it would have been to have you with us
Wondering how you would have grown older
Wondering how our lives would have changed if you were there
Wondering how happy we would have all been together

Thinking of you

Obama - The Confused Schoolboy

Obama looks like a badly distracted schoolboy. There are so many things on his "To Do" list and he increasingly looks lost all the time like a school kid who has taken on one too many classes.From healthcare to the public option, from unemployment to the economy, from immigration to the twin wars, from Iran to North Korea, from education to regulatory reforms, from domestic security to global warming and the list goes on and on. One would think that Obama has no time to even sleep tackling all these issues, but you guessed wrong. He even took a day off to go and campaign for Chicago for the Olympics (well, we know how it went by now).

Frankly, Obama is starting to bring back memories of Bush for me. The former president was so distracted that he took off on vacation whenever he had to deal with something (Bush spent 1020 days - 35% of his presidency on vacation). With Obama it’s starting to look the same now. We don’t see him in public often anymore and no one knows what he is up to. It’s going to be a year and the president has literally done nothing except talk or he really has to rethink his communication strategy to the American people.

As a presidential candidate, Obama spoke a good game on resolving the war situation and often referred to Afghanistan as “the forgotten war.” He wasn’t just talking about strategy, though he made it clear in no uncertain terms that he believed the Bush administration had badly mishandled both Iraq and Afghanistan. But now, almost after a year and the war situation is just getting worse. Public anxiety over the war is increasing by the day as the casualty count rises. And what is more dangerous is that the White House’s deliberation in not knowing what to do is playing out against a backdrop of scary pictures of life on the ground there. Looks like things have gotten worse. Where is the change?

Iran and North Korea are freely testing missiles and showcasing their nuclear technology. Heck, Iran even has a second secret nuclear facility and is dangerously coming close to declaring itself as a nuclear power. While Obama has been saying he is open to talking to Iran, they are busy testing missiles and upgrading their military. Looks like things have gotten worse. Where is the change?

Healthcare is becoming another disaster. People are confused, Lobbyists are winning and the democrats seem to be a losing the battle against republicans. Even with a democratic supermajority, it looks doubtful if any meangful and real healthcare "reform" will be passed at all....umm..Where is the change?

Immigration Reform - president said that he expects that after completing work on health care, energy and financial regulation, to draft immigration bills this year. He said plans to get the the measures passed in 2010. While nothing is being done, illegal immigration is on the rise and as strange as it may sound, it is getting more difficult to come here legally.

Educational Reform - A new education reform was announced about 6 months back. Now with all the stimulus money being spent, here we are with nothing to show. He has taken a politically promising stance, by promising to work with teachers, promoting pre-kindergarten education, grants etc.. he has spoken a great game and has clearly avoided any concrete proposals – not exactly a promising sign that real change is coming anywhere soon.

Climate change - during his UN speech Obama said his administration is "determined" to do more to address the nation's climate change obligations. But left out of the speech was the political reality the president faces in trying to keep that promise. While the House passed a sweeping climate change bill this year, it has stalled in the Senate as health care reform dominates the domestic agenda. Powerless to do anything right now, rest assured, no change is coming on this front

I am not even going to mention the ACORN mess and bad publicity Obama has been linked to. The recent videos showing some of ACORNS's workers advising people how to set up a prostitution business is def beating up his image. One up...the voter registration fraud they were accused of last year. Though Obama has no direct involvement, the fact that they are one of his biggest supporters certainly won’t go down well with the people.

What is surprising me is he is putting off making real decisions that may actually have positive impacts. There are so many czars in his administration that no one knows what the other is doing and the public is frankly clueless. He may have a talent for giving soul stirring speeches whenever his ratings fall, but he seems to be all over the place from government meddling in the housing market to the auto industry to the financial markets to the banks to the never ending Fed printing presses, to the educational reform attempts to the bailouts.

Obama needs to GET OUT of the business of business. The government needs to be the referee, not another player... and its time to actually make some changes, especially with the elections coming around next year. If Democrats lose control, forget it, the only change that is going to happen in Washington is Obama going from a president to a lame duck president.

Yoga, Indian v/s Irish Style

and here is the Irish style........... with no props!!!

Election Time…oops, Its Entertainment Time

I confess. The more I have been reading about the elections and the news, the more entertained I am. The media is equally to blame too I guess as they have been really sensationalizing the non-stop political drama like crazy. I am actually amazed to see how low Indian politics can actually go.

India is probably at the most crucial juncture with so much uncertainty all over the country which is in the midst of a recessionary cycle affecting the jobs and lives of millions. Just at a time when we really need a strong and honest government, it looks like we are getting ready to vote in the weakest leaders who will provide the worst governance ever after Independence.

Some of the more amusing things that have happened:

• Shoe throwing has suddenly become a sport (ask P.Chidamabaram, Jindal and Advani) - India's politicians are now so fearful of shoes being hurled at them that they have asked for more security and are erecting metal nets at rallies.
• Candidates declaring their wealth. Some of the candidates has really flabbergasted me (BSP candidate has just declared assets of 600 crores)
• Every party leader has to say something on the national news everyday
• Varun Gandhi saga – where do I even begin
• SP wanting to ban English and computers
• Karat who talks against corruption is joining hands with Mayawati and Jayalalitha who are the epitome of corruption in this country
• Budiya-Gudiya exchange between Modi and Priyanka
• Barrage of filmstars suddenly standing for elections – Does anyone really want Sanjay Dutt or Govinda to be a leader of the country?
• PM –Advani exchange – will you guys stop it already
• TDP’s free cash and TV schemes

We have only two parties at present in India with an all-India presence - the BJP and the Congress. Suddenly it looks like a 3-way race with a third front emerging. But we already know that the third front has no policy, except to oppose the Congress, BJP and America. History has already taught us a disastrous lesson when he third front came to power at the center the last time. Remember that It was during the third front experiment that we had 4 PMs in 4 years!! To make matters worse (or entertaining.. I don’t know the difference anymore), all of a sudden, there is talk of a fourth front comprising SP, LJP and RJD.
I am not against regional parties. I feel they have a role in our democracy - a regional role. At present, it looks like every regional party wants to be a national party and every regional leader suddenly has become a horse trader. Armed with just 5-6 seats, they are becoming or trying to be the king-makers. Even for getting admission into an ordinary MBA institute, we have debates and group discussions, but sadly when it comes to our leaders, there seems to be absolutely no criteria at all. Anyone and everyone can be a leader in India (criminals are welcome as well)
The only way Indian can build on the momentum it has seen in the last 4-5 years is if and only if a single party is elected with majority at the center. Exactly what will happen when India’s 714 million eligible voters head to the polls in the world’s biggest exercise in democracy is difficult to forecast, this year even more than in the past as it looks like the next government will pretty much be stitched together only after the results are announced. But it is sadder to see every other self proclaimed leader making a mockery of the entire country.

Only in India…Democrazy is FAR the people (before polls), BUY the people (during polls) and OFF the people (after polls).

24 - Simply Superb!!

What else can I say? After watching 18 episodes of Season 7, I am already ready to give my verdict to Jack Bauer and the rest of the 24 crew even before the season ends. Simply Superb guys!!

This season has been THE season to watch and it has so far outdone all its predecessors easily. Every episode has so many twists and turns with the right mix of action and suspense. The drama has consistently increased every single week and easily keeps you on edge wondering what will happen next. One of the other striking factors this season I loved, different from the previous ones, is that the story has been really built and revolves around the entire cast of 24 and not just Jack. Heck, Jack was even made to sit out a couple of episodes when Tony and Larry took over all the action and spotlight. But having Jack out of the field, was a good change of pace and refreshing.

While we have had to bid adieu to many lovable characters, Tony killing Larry was a bit disturbing to me (undoubtedly the most shocking twists of the season so far) as I always thought Tony is one of the good guys and was also really hoping Larry would be back the next season. With Larry gone, a Jack and Renee hookup seems inevitable (since she is already confirmed in Season 8 set in New York). As of now, it looks like a Jack and Tony showdown all the way to the end, unless something changes next episode (Which I am sure it will:) It is also interesting to see Jacks daughter back, but the father-daughter relationship probably won’t create much interest this time as I think the sole purpose of bringing her back is to save Jacks life. (Since season 8 has already been confirmed). There are still tons of questions which am sure will be answered in the coming episodes. But as of now, the writers and Kiefer Sutherland got us exactly where they want us.. Totally hooked and wanting for more.

This season is a phenomenal comeback for 24. (The ratings speak for themselves)

Thomas Friedman & Nandan Nilekani

This week, Nandan Nilekani visited New York as a part of his book tour. In his book, Imaging India, the Indian entrepreneur tries to trace the central ideas that shaped India's past and present and asks the key question of the future of India and its role as a global citizen and emerging economic giant: How will India as a global power avoid the mistakes of earlier development models?

One of my friends had extra tickets to see Thomas Friedman interview Nanadan on his new book, and I immediately jumped at the offer. The interview took place at the New York public library and I must say it was certainly a very interesting conversation. They spoke on a wide variety of topics including corruption, politics, economy, caste, Infosys (Of course!!!) and the next generation Indians making their mark around the world. Thomas Friedman has a very good sense of humor and it felt good being Indian and to see Nandan not only answering all the questions with the same humor but also bringing out the truth in each of his answers as to the true state of affairs in India. He really gave a good insight into India (without any of the hype and BS) and had the whole audience engrossed from start to finish. The most interesting conversation (I thought) was about global warming and how India and China are being blamed.

Good to see we have a new Global Ambassador to India who is making the rounds.

Interesting - Market Stats!!

There has been a lot of talk regarding the performance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) so far during Obama's term. Many said that his election would bring about a new sense of hope in the American psyche...I guess the markets disagreed.

Through yesterday's close, the DJIA's performance during President Obama's first 41 days in office is the worst of any President since at least 1900.

Kanda Sashti Kavacham

Beautiful song on Lord Muruga!

Slumdog Millionaire – A Must Watch

This past week, I had a chance to watch Slumdog Millionaire. Though I heard a lot about it, I was a bit skeptical going in as I am more than aware of the hype Indian movies generate and seldom do they actually deliver...But I could not have been more surprised.

Slumdog Millionaire follows Jamal Malik, a teenage orphan from the ghettos of Mumbai who is one question away from winning 20 million rupees on the Indian version of the trivia game show Who Wants to be a Millionaire. The movie starts off with Jamal getting tortured to get him to confess how he cheated, to his appearance on the show. The cops simply can't believe a kid who grew up on a garbage heap would know anything about anything, and tortures the kid in the hopes of getting a confession. The only snag is Jamal isn't lying and he didn't cheat. We learn the history of Jamal and the other principal characters in flashbacks, as Jamal answers questions on the TV show not from book knowledge — he has none — but his own life experiences. The movie takes you back to the various events and phases throughout his youth that led to him to really knowing the answers to the questions.

The scenes that take place in the slums are so real and it shows a level of poverty and misery that's almost beyond our imagining - and yet so real. The only let down is that by a wild coincidence, the quiz show's questions, taken in order, correspond chronologically with traumas in Jamal's young life and not to mention a fantastic actor like Irfan Khan has been wasted in an insignificant role. But the movie as a whole is a compelling piece of entertainment and is a modern version of the Cinderella story with some spicy food. The other surprising element about the movie is the music. AR.Rahman has given a smashing soundtrack and M.I.A.’s “Paper Planes” is prominently featured in the film. Only after seeing the movie did I connect the dots.

The movie is filled with humor, romance and suspense, and is easily one of the best films I have watched this year. I highly recommend it.

Where are you Mr.Raj Thackeray?

Where is Raj Thackeray and his hoodlums who claim to own the city when the city is burning?

It is indeed ironic that Raj who claims to love Mumbai, was nowhere in sight as Mumbai was attacked. I am not trying to start an argument or create any animosity but rational Indians will understand that the plain truth of the matter is people like Raj Thackeray can only survive by resorting to the 'Divide and Rule' politics. He is maintaining silence when terrorists have attacked Mumbai, but he roars with political speeches against North Indians and resorts to killing, starting riots over petty issues, throwing stones and breaking public transportation because a board has not been written in Marathi. When Mumbai has been hit by a real confrontation and faces a very real issue, he has gone into hiding. Why? Well, simple...When the people unite he loses and has nothing to say.

Not only Raj, but all the politicians from Mumbai have proved to be a pathetic lot in this crisis, right from Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh and his Deputy R R Patil. Deshmukh was in Kerala and it took several phone calls for him to finally realize the gravity of the situation. On his part, his Deputy did even worse. Asked how could such a big incident happen in Mumbai, he said, “In big cities, such small incidents do happen.”

Coming back to Mr.Raj, I want to know what he is going to say to the NSG commandos who fought the terrorists. Should they not have been allowed into Mumbai because they are all from the North and South India? Mumbai was not saved by his marathi goons rather it was saved by Indians. Raj Thackeray has clearly proved that he is a politician, and a cheap one at that...definitely NOT a leader.. All he can do it taunt the innocent and poor people who come to Mumbai to make a decent living.

The whole country has come together to support Mumbai Mr.Raj...Where are the son's of the Marathi soil hiding? Are you abroad on holiday or unwell? Or are you missing because the election dates in Maharashtra haven't been announced as yet? You are not scared of terrorist gunfire and bullets, or are you? Come out and pay homage to the people who laid their lives fighting the terrorists and by the way, none of them are Mumbaikers...

Citi - Finally Going To Sleep

$3.77 – Closing price of Citibank today. Investors have seen similar stories this year, with Bear, Lehman, Merrill, and the endings are very unpleasant when consumer confidence falls. Looks like the end is in sight for yet another great American company: Citigroup, once the biggest U.S. financial institution of them all, looks like it is dangerously close to merging, tanking, folding, failing, falling or however else you want to say it. The shares fell today to a 12 year low even while there was a big rally in the market.

Citi Never sleeps - The once famous phrase used to describe the company may just be used for the last times in the coming weeks (or should I say days) Looking back, I guess the whole idea behind Citigroup was flawed from the start. Unbeatable scale in financial services? Forget it. We now see the good Citi's size has done for investors: the company has an unworkable business model. It is run by a senior management team that's largely unproven, with scant experience operating a large financial institution. And the company's risk controls (if the past few years are any evidence) are hopelessly inadequate to the task. While the conventional wisdom says Citi is too big to fail, the reality is it's too big to manage. As a result, the company has become a publicly traded incarnation of Murphy's Law: anything that can go wrong almost certainly will-and probably sooner rather than later. And $25 billion in TARP money isn't going to do much to turn things around. Worries about Citigroup’s problem assets will continue to weigh down investor confidence. Citigroup’s shares have traded as high as $35.29 in the past 52 weeks. It closed today under $4. Its market capitalization (market cap) – the actual value of a publicly traded company – has plunged from $195 billion at the stock’s 52-week high to just under $21 billion today.

I think it is better for the management to move quickly to sell parts of the company or merge with someone else (Goldman and Morgan Stanley have been mentioned).Citi has notched losses in each of the past four quarters, including a $2.8 billion loss in the third quarter, and has taken in excess of $40 billion in write-downs. With news like 52,000 job cuts and slash expenses by 20% just weakens the confidence and is not helping its stock. Most institutional investors and pension funds are barred from owning stocks below $5. So if Citigroup's stock remains below that level, it could trigger a wave of selling that would send the share price even lower. Though not immediately, the money managers have to get out before the end of the quarter if the price does not bounce back.

On the upside, Citi does have a strong franchise overseas and there is no sign anyone is making a run on the bank. It has sufficient liquidity and is in a comfortable position capital wise. All the institutional traders are still doing business with the bank. But the question is, can Vikram Pandit withstand the pressure or will he give in and do a deal or even sell of pieces of the company to appease the public sentiment.

It's getting to the point where it's make-or-break time. The only thing going against Citi is the loss of confidence and it may just be strong enough to bring the behemoth down to its knees. If today is any indicator, Citibank in its present form cannot, and almost certainly will not, continue to exist.

The Big 3...or Just 3

There has been so much drama over the last 2 weeks focusing on Detroit. GM, Chrysler and Ford (or the Big 3) wants a government bailout (heck why not, everyone else on Wall Street is getting free money for screwing up) but no agreement has been reached so far. The democrats flew to Detroit, headed by Pelosi, and met the big guns and promised them a bailout. The big three came back to Washington and in their private jets (what were they thinking) and asked for a 25 Billion package and said Bankruptcy was not an option for them. Then the lame duck congress rebuffed them and now the democrats have given them until 2 Dec to submit a viable turnaround plan so assistance can be given to them. Phew!!

I guess in this economy it is all but boiling down to consumer confidence. And make no mistake, it will get worse and fear has already taken over the entire country. But giving the auto industry a bailout does not solve anything. Assistance of some, shape or form will probably be worked out by the new administration, but my point is nothing is going to change until the American auto industry fundamentally changes its current practices. GM, Ford and Chrysler may ultimately receive loans or other financial support from the U.S. government, although the form, timing, and magnitude of this assistance are difficult to predict. The govt will probably give billions without knowing what it is getting into (read AIG, after announcing a $85 billion bailout, the govt increased it to $140 billion and still no one knows what’s going on there). Anyways, it is important to stress that such assistance will only buy more time for these companies rather than as a solution to their fundamental business risks, which will remain no matter how much money they are given.

If any bailout is given, there should be a lot of strings attached. First, Detroit’s huge disadvantage in costs relative to foreign brands must be eliminated. There needs to be a fundamental shift in the cost burden weighing down the industry and the cumbersome contracts with UAW that make work rules a constant challenge. The American car companies are unable to compete as they are not able to align pay and benefits to those of competitors like Honda, Nissan and Toyota. Also, the existing management must be shown the door. None of the CEO's want to step down and take responsibility but all of them want a free pass (read tax payer's money). Rick Wagoner has been the CEO for the last 8 years at GM and he literally has nothing to show for it. I wonder what change he is going to bring once he gets our money. If he was going to bring the change he is promising, GM would not be begging for assistance. Robert Nardelli who heads Chrysler took a $210 million package from Home Depot last year and landed this job. Wonder what real incentive he has to bring about any change. Alan Mullaly, CEO of Ford, has indiscriminately fired his workforce in the name of cutting costs and Ford literally has no one left to bring about any change no matter how much money they receive. The stakes are high. The Detroit automakers employ nearly a quarter-million workers, and more than 730,000 other workers produce materials and parts that go into cars. About 1 million more people work in dealerships nationwide. They burned through nearly $18 billion in cash reserves during the last quarter - about $7 billion at GM, almost $8 billion at Ford and $3 billion at Chrysler. GM and Chrysler have said they could collapse in weeks. So no two ways about it in my opinion. The existing management has to be fired if any meaningful turnaround is to be achieved in the Auto Industry.

There is another interesting question which the big three are asking to make a case for their bailout stating that Consumers will not buy cars from a bankrupt company. But at this point they have all accepted that they are burning through cash at an alarming rate and GM has publicly stated it may not survive for long as it has no liquidity. Interestingly, while all of them want money, none of them have anything to say explaining how the money will be spent. Though it is a tough decision, filing for Chapter 11 and/or an organized bankruptcy may give them the best chance of re-structuring and re-negotiating existing thorns and ultimately re-emerging as a stronger player.

Where Will It End?

I got an interesting email from my sister this morning and she could not have summed up the pain and frustration everyone is feeling any better. So with her permission, I am putting up her email on my blog. So here goes.....

Are'nt we all getting tired of this recession? Yeah yeah there are a bunch of you out there who are still in denial about the country being in recession, but whatever you'd like to call it, are'nt we just beat, bored, broken down, burned out, distressed, drained, exhausted, fed up, pooped, worn out and just dog-tired of what’s going on? Yes the down turn is in its peak, yes the government has no money, yes people are losing their jobs and yes we're scared to spend in the fear of losing our jobs. 2008 saw the fall of the bank and 2009 is going to see how this translates into core industry. A couple of weeks back there was a surge of hope when the American folk went and voted for the the golden boy .... but the stock market has accomplished stripping us of all traces of elevated spirits after that.

The DOW closed under 8000 yesterday and while it sounds about right, there’s a part of me that wants the DOW to plummet to its lowest ....TODAY! At least we can move on after that. But the other part of me knows that we can’t drop too fast either. We need to feel every pang of misery, slowly and painfully, so that we rid ourselves of all our sins and make for a fresh start.

The dot com bust and the govt surplus during the Clinton administration was reason enough for the recession to set in (its a zero sum game people - surplus with the govt means no money circulating amongst the public - well more or less), but that recession was one that should have been worse than it was. The super hero of the moment was Alan - Visionary - Greenspan. When Clinton shouted 'Affordable Homes for all Americans' Greenspan should have stepped down and let the monkey run the Fed in the hope of a random lucky move that monkey might have made. Instead he sealed the fate of the economy with his monetary policies. Affordable homes indeed.... all for about 2 seconds.. then they became unaffordable again when the 'visionary' raised interest rates and forced the American to default. Lets not forget the banks.. now now how could we forget the greed that this industry so beautifully camouflages into helpful stances for all common man! You're worried about Wall Street - HA! Main Street feeds Wall Street's avarice!!

So where are we now? The American man cant pay back his home loan - so banks don’t have any money - so corporations cant borrow money - so corporations cant start new projects - so corporations have to let go of workers - so workers cant pay their mortgages... what a cycle!.. and once started we cant stop the downward spiral. And not to forget the derivative markets that have exploited every single portion of this cycle. Now with everything failing, is there a floor? We thought banks might see their write-off floors when the government proposed the buying of troubled assets. Banks could sell their troubled assets for eg. 40 cents on the dollar (whatever the amount - we don’t know) and they would not have to write off more than the left over 60 cents. Banks would rake in the 40 cents as capital and life was supposed to move forward. The $700B bill struggled initially but finally went through both the Senate and the House and Henry Paulson took possession of the first $350B to start his clean up work... We've seen the stock markets rally and spiral a few times since then and we've also seen the new president-elect create waves.. but we haven’t seen the buying of troubled assets. From his statements, it seems like Hank's changed his mind. Bank stocks are plunging again and we have no idea what the floor is. Whatever it turns out to be, lets hope we don’t see it higher or sooner than it should be. From the policies during the last recession, Greenspan created a huger monster that is the down turn now.. With all the bailouts and the bandaging and caretaking the Feds are doing, lets hope we're not creating an even bigger mess.

Go(O)bama

I must admit, being a conservative and a supporter of Bush so far, Obama certainly grabbed my attention ever since he began his run for presidency. The way he ran his campaign was admirable and he never hit anyone below the belt. He always emphasized on hope and made the country feel inclusive in all his messages. I stayed up watching TV and when the winner was revealed, it was certainly a profound moment. Given the history of the country and where we have come, I was reassured that the American Dream is real and alive.

I guess the over-whelming reason Barack won is because the whole country wants someone to desperately restart the country, from the economy to the living standards, from education to health care and of course the foreign policy - everything appears to be currently broken. The country gave a clear mandate as they see in Obama what they wanted to see - Hope. No one trusts Bush anymore (even me) and the republicans were sent packing as they should have been. To Obamas credit, he had perfect execution of most of his themes and he hammered a home-run with his campaign’s ground game. McCain and Palin..Well, I won’t go there but after she shopped for $150k, I knew it was totally over for both of them.

People have voted for change - What change Obama can bring and the direction of the change remains to be seen. I will pray he is a successful president as America really needs a new direction.