SriMan NaraYana

SriMan NaraYana

Some Real Tounge Twisters!!!

1. If one doctor doctors another doctor does the doctor who doctors the doctor, doctor the doctor the way the doctor he is doctoring doctors?Or does the doctor, doctor the way the doctor who doctors doctors?
2. A Tudor who tooted a flute tried to tutor two tooters to toot. Said the two to their tutor, "Is it harder to toot or to tutor two tooters to toot?"
3. A bitter biting bittern Bit a better brother bittern, And the bitter better bittern Bit the bitter biter back. And the bitter bittern, bitten, By the better bitten bittern, Said: "I'm a bitter biter bit, alack!"
4. A tree toad loved a she-toad Who lived up in a tree. He was a two-toed tree toad But a three-toed toad was she. The two-toed tree toad tried to win The three-toed she-toad's heart, For the two-toed tree toad loved the ground That the three-toed tree toad trod. But the two-toed tree toad tried in vain. He couldn't please her whim. From her tree toad bower With her three-toed power The she-toad vetoed him.
5. Silly Sally swiftly shooed seven silly sheep. The seven silly sheep Silly Sally shooedshilly-shallied south. These sheep shouldn't sleep in a shack; sheep should sleep in a shed.
6. You've no need to light a night-light On a light night like tonight, For a night-light's light's a slight light, And tonight's a night that's light. When a night's light, like tonight's light, It is really not quite right To light night-lights with their slight lights On a light night like tonight.
7. The twain that in twining before in the twine, As twines were intwisted he now doth untwine; Twist the twain inter-twisting a twine more between, He, twirling his twister, makes a twist of the twine.
8. If a Hottentot taught a Hottentot tot To talk ere the tot could totter, Ought the Hottenton tot Be taught to say aught, or naught, Or what ought to be taught her? If to hoot and to toot a Hottentot tot Be taught by her Hottentot tutor, Ought the tutor get hot If the Hottentot tot Hoot and toot at her Hottentot tutor?
9. Once upon a barren moor There dwelt a bear, also a boar. The bear could not bear the boar. The boar thought the bear a bore. At last the bear could bear no more Of that boar that bored him on the moor, And so one morn he bored the boar--That boar will bore the bear no more.
10. If you stick a stock of liquor in your locker, It's slick to stick a lock upon your stock, Or some stickler who is slicker Will stick you of your liquor If you fail to lock your liquor With a lock!
11. Mr Inside went over to see Mr Outside. Mr Inside stood outside and called to MrOutside inside. Mr Outside answered Mr Inside from inside and Told Mr Inside to come inside. Mr Inside said "NO", and told Mr Outside to come outside. MrOutside and Mr Inside argued from inside and outside about going outside or coming inside. Finally, Mr Outside coaxed Mr Inside to come inside, then both Mr Outside and Mr Inside went outside to the riverside.
12. We surely shall see the sun shine shortly. Whether the weather be fine, Or whether the weather be not, Whether the weather be cold Or whether the weather be hot, We'll weather the weather Whatever the weather, Whether we like it or not. watch? Whether the weather is hot. Whether the weather is cold. Whether the weather is either or not. It is whether we like it or not.
13. Mr. See owned a saw. And Mr. Soar owned a seesaw. Now See's saw sawed Soar's seesaw Before Soar saw See, Which made Soar sore.Had Soar seen See's saw Before See sawed Soar's seesaw, See's saw would not have sawed Soar's seesaw. So See's saw sawed Soar's seesaw.But it was sad to see Soar so sore Just because See's saw sawed Soar's seesaw

Oil - Up, Up and Away

The price for a gallon of gas has been setting new record highs averaging around $3.7. Well, if you are in California, there is a good chance that you are paying more than $4 already. If all else is not enough, Goldman Sachs predicted on Tuesday that oil could soar towards $150-$200 a barrel because of a lack of adequate supply growth. Supply is up, demand is down, yet the price is soaring. So what is the deal with oil??

Crude prices have more than doubled in the last one year causing pain to millions around the world. Many analysts believe the dollar’s protracted decline over the past year has much to do with the doubling in oil prices since May of last year. Another school of thought thinks growing demand in rapidly developing countries such as China, Brazil and India, is the primary factor driving oil higher. Others have also attributed speculation in oil and a wave of fund money pouring into commodities, given the weaknesses in other financial markets.

What effect does the falling dollar have on the price of crude? Most oil price contracts are denominated in dollars. The dollar has fallen in value by more than 30 percent against a Federal Reserve index of major currencies since 2002. This means that the price of imports, including oil, have gone up. That brings us to speculation. Since September 2003, the total number of open crude oil futures and options contracts rose by 364 percent. Meanwhile the global demand for petroleum rose by just 8.2 percent. So the futures and options market has become more important than the physical supplies in driving the price. We are seeing investment flows into the oil market that don't have anything to do with the demand and supply of oil. Investors are treating oil as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar. Oil markets are part of a negative positive feedback loop in which higher oil prices contribute to higher inflation, which in turn lowers the value of the dollar, which boosts oil prices, and so forth. In other words, the oil market is coming to resemble the gold market (which has also been soaring).

Economists also note that in the short run oil prices are very inelastic: A large change in price produces only a small change in demand. If the price of gas goes up a dollar per gallon overnight, you still have to fill your tank to get to work. However, over the long run, consumers and producers respond to higher oil prices. For example, Americans are driving less and have switched to buying more fuel efficient cars. Higher prices are no doubt encouraging innovation.
Oil companies have a two-pronged approach when it comes to innovation: seek alternative sources of energy that will both (1) reduce dependency on trouble-some, oil-rich nations and (2) utilize this energy in a manner that will still reap windfall profits. Although ideal in theory, it’s much tougher to implement in practice since renewable energies are just that - renewable. When products are renewable, profits go down since consumers purchase less. There is no doubt that several companies have already innovated alternative fuels, however these will take years before reaching a scale of production where profits can be made from them.

So what will happen to oil prices over the next few years? No one is predicting $10 per barrel oil. However, it sure seems to be the right time to give up that Hummer and switch to hybrids as this problem is not going away anytime soon!!

NY Mom

And the Campaign Continues...

It looks like the democratic primary race is over. After last night's overwhelming win in North Carolina and surprising close contest in Indiana for Obama, it looks increasingly difficult for Clinton to convince people why she is still running.

Oh..what a difference a week makes. April 28 was only last week but it feels like ages ago. That was the day Obama got hit by a one-two punch. First, his former pastor dominated the airwaves with his offensive rant. The same day brought news that Hillary had decided to join McCain in calling for a summer gas tax holiday, sure to be popular with voters angry about high costs at the pump. But in the end Obama seems to have come out on top as he took a more rational principal stand on the gas tax issue backed by the countries economists and made Clinton look like a political opportunist as she aligned with McCain.

Well, with only 6 contests remaining and a reducing pool of voters to help Clinton, there are potentially no more game changers left to turn the tide in her favor. Last night's results were decisive on their own: They offered Clinton her last, best chance to turn the tables on her rival, and she didn't even come close. To be sure, Obama is still struggling to win some demographic groups, notably blue-collar white voters, who are a key component of the Democratic base.

The pressure is on Clinton now to convince the super-delegates, who are the only ones who can change the game, why she is better than Obama. With a lead in pledged delages, popular votes, number of states won and caucuses, Obama seems too close to the finish line not to win the nomination. And last nights results diminished Clinton's rationale for urging Democratic superdelegates to override all his leads and give the nomination to her.

Well, the campaigns may continue, however it looks like the contest is over!!

Putting the Brakes on India's Growth

India continues on its high-growth trajectory, with GDP expanding at or about expected rates. However, the economic data have weakened in recent months, causing worry for many people. This of course reflects the impact of the sharp appreciation of the rupee during 2007. The rupee has stabilized now, but other factors like high prices and rising commodities are starting to cause worry. It was widely agreed that RBI's policies for the last 2 years was based on the judgment that the Indian economy was overheating, as demonstrated by the 9% growth rate and higher inflation. However, the expected moderation doesn't appear to be too severe as the economy appears to be cooling, albeit from other concerns.

Sharp appreciation in the rupee in the first half of 2007 resulted in a significant decline in the growth rate of exports and the stronger rupee also contributed to the slowdown in industrial production during the second half of 2007. The currency has since stabilized, as the central bank has returned to its previous position of a tightly managed gradual appreciation. However, the overall economic situation has started to have its impact on what looked like India's once unstoppable economic growth.

However, even as growth slows, risks to inflation are still significant as a result of elevated global oil prices and, increasingly, rising global food prices. Its interesting to see that the central bank hasn't yet responded to the prospect of growth slowing to a level that might not be acceptable to below-trend level.

GDP growth reached a peak of 9.8% during 2006 thanks to strong growth momentum in services and industry. The services sector has been growing at a persistently high rate since the late 1990s, and the industrial sector has accelerated sharply from a relatively sluggish phase during 2003 and continued to gain momentum until 2006. However, after peaking in early part of 2007, industrial production decelerated steadily, which clearly seems to have translated into lower aggregate growth.

The difference between growth rates of GDP and industrial production is the result of continued momentum in the services sector, which has not displayed significant sensitivity to either rising interest rates or an appreciating currency. Changes in the macroeconomic environment have undoubtedly affected certain activities such as currency appreciation and growth slowdown in the services sector. However, the aggregate continues to grow at rates that reflect both expanding domestic demand and highly competitive exports. Agriculture also contributed significantly in 2007, which currently bodes well for food prices.

Rising Inflation Could Make It Difficult For The Reserve Bank To Cut Interest Rates - The economy's vulnerability has been highlighted as there has been a sudden change in food supply due to rising prices. Call from the CPI and Left to withdraw support to the govt (Again!!) has made many people sit up and realize the problem has gotten bigger than we would have liked it to. However, the combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation threats from the supply side, for both food and oil, poses a significant challenge to monetary policy.

The Rupee Will Continue To Appreciate, but gradually. The most significant development on the exchange rate front was the large and rapid appreciation of the rupee during the second quarter of 2007. This was followed by a change in the RBI's policy. Previously, the RBI accumulated the balance of payments surplus as foreign exchange reserves. But the inflationary consequences of persistent reserve accumulation in the face of a dramatic increase in the balance of payments surplus motivated the change in policy stance. A sharp surge in capital inflows early in the first half of 2007 made continuous RBI intervention unsustainable. As a result, the rupee rose at an uncontrolled pace in the second quarter of 2007. However, in the third quarter of 2007, the central bank seems to have reverted to its stance of controlled appreciation.

The Biggest Threats To India's GDP Are At Home. India may be the world's largest democracy. But it also comes with a costly tag of not being able to move quickly on taking decisions unless a consensus has been reached among all of India's political parties. This does put India at a big disadvantage as it almost always causes one to miss the bus and act only after the fact instead of being able to take decisions at the right time. Because of this it should be pointed out that domestic factors are the main cause of this deceleration. Because the recent growth has been driven by domestic factors, India is relatively insulated from a mild U.S. and global slowdown.

India's growth and GDP is expected to fall to 7.5%-7.8% in 2008 from the 8.7% growth it enjoyed in 2007.

H1-B (2009) - And the Rush starts now!!!

Last year, the visa cap for H1B petitions was filled on Day 1. Though no numbers were released officially, it is estimated that USCIS had in fact received about 150,000 applications and thus resorted to ‘lottery’ (Random Selection) to pick up eligible applications. Many applicants had to wait longer just to know if their application was selected. Also, due to sudden rush, many had to wait for months to receive a status on their accepted application as well.

Now with just 2 more weeks left to go before USCIS accepts applications for 2009 H1B Quota, it looks like last years rush is about to repeat this year as well. Here are few things that may affect the drama this year and may change the stats a little bit.


Recession, Slowdown and Layoffs
It has already been widely acknowledged that the US economy is not in its brightest spot and we are already in a recession. Though some optimists are declaring just a slowdown, rest assured with recent announcements of another full percentage point rate cut looming and stagflation fears, the economy is in trouble. This puts direct pressure on all IT consultants and prospective H1B consultants for year 2008. Some may be reminded of the "dotcom" bust in 2001, where 1000s of IT consultants lost their jobs and had to leave for India after spending months searching for their next gig. For H1B consultants, this is a lot more serious issue, as if they loose their job or their project ends, they almost immediately have to leave US or be 'on bench' with no pay. Question is how long can people survive with either of those scenarios?

A Game of Chance...
Just like last year, it is almost certain that visa cap will be reached on day 1 and USCIS may again resort to ‘random selection’. That would mean, there is no guarantee and chances are completely based on luck rather than a consultant’s qualifications and specialization. Given here is a link with statistics released by USCIS as to the number of H1-B approvals for last year.
http://www.businessweek.com/table/08/0305_h1b.htm

New Competition for H1B Holders
July 2007 was a historic period of the year in the sense that in a sudden and surprise move, all visa status became current for green card applicants from India and almost all submitted their I-485 applications. All such applicants received EADs for themselves and their spouses. Spouses of many of these applicants who were on dependent visas like H4 became suddenly eligible to work without any restrictions. That brought in a totally new breed of workforce to the already downsized market for 2008. This additional supply of workforce surely puts more pressure in the job market especially when there are fewer jobs out there and now H1's are competing with EAD's.

Numbers this year...
The official H1B quota still stands at 65,000. There is no news about any possible increase and increases in caps looks unlikely with recession. The actual number of visas available is infact about 58,000 once you subtract the visas reserved for Singapore/Chile. For those who received or receiving Graduate Degree or any other Advanced Degree from US Universities, there is an additional quota of 20,000.

H1B Abuse - Yes it happens every year.
If you look at the statistics link above, it gives you an insight as to who is getting the most H1's. There is no doubt that the outsourcers are abusing the H1B visa program. Companies such as Infosys and Wipro are undermining the American economy by wiping out jobs. The companies bring low-cost workers to the U.S., train them in the offices of U.S. clients, and then rotate them back home after a year or two so they can provide tech support and other services from abroad. At the end of the day, an employee of Infosys or Wipro who manages to get a H1 stays in the country for maybe 2 years or so on an average of 6 years thereby denying the visa to someone graduating from an American university who truly needs the visa. The numbers released by USICS clearly shows the visa is not being used for what it was intended for. The outsourcing companies also prefer H1’s to L1’s or B1’s as once an H1 is stamped for an employee they can fly out overnight (whenever the client wants them onsite) and also there is less legal costs involved. Since their tactics have now been noted by USICS, it will be interesting to see if the outsourcing companies get the same number of approvals like last year.

Whatever the case may be, as the filing date approaches, the H1 B visa rush starts NOW!!!