Monday, February 4, 2008

The catch that won the Super Bowl!!

I went to watch the super bowl at a friends place with mixed emotions. Of course as a new yorker there were no questions as to where my loyalties lie. But I was nervous thinking of the near perfect season that the Patriot's had so far coming in and it did bother me. They came in 18-0 and were going to be the only team since the dolphins to have a perfect season if they won...but destiny had other plans. Manning pulled off what was a miracle and by the end of the night, I was jumping, my adrenalin was pumping and boy what a victory it was.. It was without a doubt the best Super Bowl ever...I am sure the Miami Dolphins are popping the cork as well that their perfect season record is intact, but you have to hand it to Manning for coming through even after his ability has been questioned so many times in the recent past.

The game had everything — a first half filled with bullying defense and the best QB getting sacked so many times. But it was the final quarter which will be remembered as the giants 17-14 shock win changed the destiny of 2 people. Tom Brady - who was denied joining Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings and Eli Manning - Who now joins his brother and father to have the MVP titles in superbowls.

The best play were made in the last minutes of the games, when Manning threw the ball 32 yards, somehow after he miraculously spun away from what seemed to be the Patriots’ entire defensive line. With a touchdown catch in the books, Tyree went up high, two hands reaching, pulling the ball down on to his helmet, rerouting history and the Super Bowl XLII parade route, from Boston to New York (See pic for the winning catch).

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Wanted: Jérôme Kerviel

The elusive 31-year-old trader, Jérôme Kerviel, has given the slip to media from around the world pursuing the story of history's biggest trading misadventure. Kerviel has successfully shot from anonymity to international celebrity over the past week when Société Générale said he was behind a "massive fraud" that had cost it $7.1 billion. Internet search engines now turn up hundreds of thousands of entries bearing his name.

Although his photograph - a grainy mug shot - made the front page of papers around the world, Kerviel has managed to remain invisible. He has not spoken a word to the press and has kept journalists guessing about his whereabouts. No fresh photos of Kerviel have been published since the scandal broke. After police held him for nearly 48 hours, judges Monday threw out any fraud charges against him but did file preliminary charges - and he is free on bail while the investigation continues. Although hundreds of reporters are staking out all his known whereabouts, he has still managed to slip away unnoticed.

One thing is certain...an image of Kerviel will fetch "lots and lots of money" and he has propelled Soc Gen right to the No. 1 spot in trading disasters of all times.

As the bank continues to reel under sudden scrutiny, three employees at Societe Generale in Paris have alledgely committed suicide as fresh concerns are being raised about the stressful work environment at the scandal-hit bank. I guess when it rains, it always pours.

TOP 10 TRADING DISASTERS

Here's a league table of the biggest bank trading disasters of all time.
1. Societe Generale - $7.1bn (European index futures) 2008
2. Amaranth Advisors - $6.5bn (Gas futures) 2006
3. Long Term Capital Management - $4.6bn (Interest rate and equity derivatives) 1998
4. Sumitomo Corporation - $2.6bn (Copper futures) 1996
5. Bawag - $2.5bn (Currency and interest rate swaps) 2006
6. Metallgesellscahft - $1.6bn (Oil futures) 1993
7. Sowood Capital Management - $1.6bn (Debt securities)
8. Barings - $1.4bn (Nikkei futures) 1995
9. Credit Suisse - $1.3bn (Emerging markets) 1998
10. Daiwa Bank - $1.1bn (bonds) 1995

Friday, January 18, 2008

The Awakening...

A time comes in your life when you finally get it -- when, in the midst of all your fears and insanity, you stop dead in your tracks and somewhere the voice inside your head cries out "ENOUGH!" Enough fighting and crying or struggling to hold on. And, like a child quieting down after a blind tantrum, your sobs begin to subside, you shudder once or twice, you blink back your tears and begin to look at the world through new eyes.

This is your awakening.

You realize it's time to stop hoping and waiting for something to change or for happiness, safety, and security to come galloping over the next horizon. You come to terms with the fact that you are neither Prince Charming nor Cinderella. And that, in the real world, there aren't always fairy-tale endings (or beginnings, for that matter). And that any guarantee of "happily ever after" must begin with you -- and in the process, a sense of serenity is born of acceptance. You awaken to the fact that you are not perfect and that not everyone will always love, appreciate, or approve of who or what you are...and that's OK. They are entitled to their own views and opinions. And you learn the importance of loving and championing yourself -- and in the process, a sense of new-found confidence is born of self-approval. You stop complaining and blaming other people for the things they did to you (or didn't do for you) and you learn that the only thing you can really count on is the unexpected.

You learn that people don't always say what they mean or mean what they say, and that not everyone will always be there for you, and that it's not always about you. So you learn to stand on your own and to take care of yourself -- and in the process, a sense of safety and security is born of self-reliance. You stop judging and pointing fingers and you begin to accept people as they are and overlook their shortcomings and human frailties – and in the process, a sense of peace and contentment is born of forgiveness. You realize that much of the way you view yourself and the world around you is as a result of all the messages and opinions that have been ingrained into your psyche. And you begin to sift through all the junk you've been fed about how you should behave, how you should look, how much you should weigh, what you should wear, what you should do for a living, how much money you should make, what you should drive, how and where you should live, who you should marry, the importance of having and raising children, and what you owe your parents, family, and friends. You learn to open up to new worlds and different points of view. And you begin reassessing and redefining who you are and what you really stand for. You learn the difference between wanting and needing and you begin to discard the doctrines and values you've outgrown, or should never have bought into to begin with -- and in the process, you learn to go with your instincts.

You learn that it is truly in giving that we receive. And that there is power and glory in creating and contributing and you stop maneuvering through life merely as a "consumer" looking for your next fix. You learn that principles such as honesty and integrity are not the outdated ideals of a bygone era but the mortar that holds together the foundation upon which you must build a life.

You learn that you don't know everything, it's not your job to save the world and that you can't teach a pig to sing. You learn to distinguish between guilt and responsibility and the importance of setting boundaries and learning to say NO. You learn that the only cross to bear is the one you choose to carry and that martyrs get burned at the stake. Then you learn about love. How to love, how much to give in love, when to stop giving and when to walk away. You learn to look at relationships as they really are and not as you would have them be. You stop trying to control people, situations, and outcomes. And you learn that alone does not mean lonely. You also stop working so hard at putting your feelings aside, smoothing things over and ignoring your needs.

You learn that feelings of entitlement are perfectly OK, and that it is your right to want things and to ask for the things you want -- and that sometimes it is necessary to make demands.
You come to the realization that you deserve to be treated with love, kindness, sensitivity, and respect -- and you won't settle for less. And you learn that your body really is your temple. And you begin to care for it and treat it with respect. You begin to eat a balanced diet, drink more water, and take more time to exercise. You learn that being tired fuels doubt, fear, and uncertainty and so you take more time to rest. And, just as food fuels the body, laughter fuels our soul. So you take more time to laugh and to play. You learn that, for the most part, you get in life what you believe you deserve -- and that much of life truly is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

You learn that anything worth achieving is worth working for and that wishing for something to happen is different from working toward making it happen. More importantly, you learn that in order to achieve success you need direction, discipline, and perseverance. You also learn that no one can do it all alone -- and that it's OK to risk asking for help. You learn the only thing you must truly fear is the greatest robber baron of all: FEAR itself. You learn to step right into and through your fears because you know that whatever happens you can handle it and to giving in to fear is to give away the right to live life on your own terms. And you learn to fight for your life and not to squander it living under a cloud of impending doom.

You learn that life isn't always fair, you don't always get what you think you deserve, and that bad things sometimes happen to unsuspecting, good people. On these occasions you learn to not personalize things. You learn that God isn't punishing you or failing to answer your prayers. It's just life happening. And you learn to deal with evil in its most primal state -- the ego.

You learn that negative feelings such as anger, envy, and resentment must be understood and
redirected or they will suffocate the life out of you and poison the universe that surrounds you. You learn to admit when you are wrong and to build bridges instead of walls. You learn to be thankful and to take comfort in many of the simple things we take for granted, things that millions of people upon the earth can only dream about: a full refrigerator, clean running water, a soft warm bed, a long hot shower.

Slowly, you begin to take responsibility for yourself by yourself and you make yourself a promise to never betray yourself and to never, ever settle for less than your heart's desire. And you hang a wind chime outside your window so you can listen to the wind. And you make it a point to keep smiling, to keep trusting, and to stay open to every wonderful possibility.

Finally, with courage in your heart and God by your side, you take a stand, you take a deep breath, and you begin to design as best you can the life you want to live.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Nano: The World's Cheapest Car


Tata Motors today took the covers off the world’s cheapest car — the Nano. Over the past year, Tata has been building hype for a car costs a mere 1 Lakh (roughly $2,500). Since the name was unveiled only today, it has been popularly dubbed the “People’s Car.”

The car will have a 624-cc petrol engine generating 33 bhp of power. It will sport a 30-litre fuel tank and 4-speed manual gearshift. The car will come with air conditioning, but will have no power steering. It will have front disk and rear drum brakes. The company claims mileage of 23 km per litre. The car's dashboard features just a speedometer, fuel gauge, and oil light. The car does not have reclining seats or radio. The shock absorbers are basic.

Nano, the world's cheapest car, costs almost half of the cheapest car currently available anywhere in the world. Some analysts have criticised the car as they feel a lot of safety features have been comprimised. Compare with most cars where even the basic safety features cost over $2500.

The Nano is expected to be commerically launched in the second half of 2008. Not since the launch of the Maruti 800 in 1983 has any car gripped the imagination of a nation and indeed car manufacturers the world over so intensely. If commercially successful, the Tata Nano can alter the passenger car market in India, and perhaps the world, beyond description.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Is the Sun(TV) beginning to set?

OK. OK. This maybe up for debate, but whats going on with Sun TV??
I watched Sun TV over the last couple of weeks while I was in India and I must say all the programs are really bad…terrible to say the least. I could not watch for more than an hour. Every program on Sun TV seems to be copied (very badly) from some other channel (read Vijay) and what surprised me was I was seeing the same people who appeared in the originals.

Kalaka povadhu yaaru from vijay tv has become Asatha povadhu yaaru on sun tv,
Jodi no. 1 from vijay tv has become masthana masthana on sun tv (Incidentally Jodi no.1 season 2 became masthana masthana 2 (what did you expect) and Coffee with Anu from vijay tv has Anbudan (which was scrapped as there was no takers (surprise surprise) on sun tv and the list goes on.....

Kailaignar tv and Jaya tv seem to have the required party backing and vijay tv has all the talent. Sun tv seems to be left out in the cold and seems to be running out of options. Sun TV is running so low on creativity and seems to be satisfied with just blatantly ripping off other shows. The problem is however, they are doing a bad job at it. The only thing going for it is no doubt the mega-serials which it solely seems to be relying on. Sun TV has even poached the same artistes from the Vijay TV Show and roped in one of the judges (Madan Bob) for Asatha povadhu yaaru.
But what makes you realize that the sun is setting without a doubt is that for each show, they keep proclaiming and make every artist/contestant say that sun tv is the greatest channel and their shows are the best on this planet.

Talking about SUN news…well that’s another story altogether (it is so bad, does not even deserve to be written about)

Interestingly the stock has plummeted by over 50% over the last 8-10 months sending a strong message to the management. It has been a long time since they did anything revolutionary and if they don’t get their act together soon, the sun is not coming up anytime soon after it sets.... or in other words, start shorting.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

American Gangster


This past weekend, I watched American Gangster. Though I had seen the previews earlier, I had no expectations going in, and I must say I was pleasantly surprised. It was a gripping movie and it certainly had my attention for over two and a half hours.

The biopic movie, about the real life gangster Frank Lucas and Detective Richie Roberts, is definitely worth a watch. It is set in the 1970’s New York underworld. The film explores the rise and fall of Lucas who also happens to be the guy who was above the Italian mafia at that time. Meanwhile, throughout Lucas’s rise, an outcast cop named Richie Roberts begins to put the pieces together and discovers that Lucas is the next big crime boss and at all costs wants to and manages to bring him down. A great gangster film ensues!

I am sure all of you can read the reviews of the movies online, but what intrigued me about the movie was the irony of both characters. Their professional and personal lives are flipped. Frank does dishonest things for a living at every turn, but in his personal life lives by a strict moral code of humility, honesty, church and family. Richie is a painfully honest cop, but his personal life is a garbage dump of lies, failed relationships, prostitutes and insecurities.

The movie did get me curious and I did do some looking around to see the kind of life the real Frank Lucas and Richie Roberts are leading today… and believe it or not, they are good friends today. It was one of those movies that I was thinking about the next day (rarely does that happen :)

Anyways, for those interested in looking/reading about the real American Gangster, here are some interesting links
And watch this video

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

The Shrinking Economy


The U.S. economic data seems to be coming in much stronger than expected. Real GDP rose 3.9% in the second quarter and payrolls jumped 166,000 in October. Does this mean the economy is ignoring the housing problems and energy prices, or does it just mean that the eventual decline will be even worse?

The Federal Reserve's quarter-point interest rate cut on Oct. 31 suggests that they believe the worst is yet to come. Whether the economy is moving towards a slowdown or turns into a recession depends on three factors:
  • Can consumers continue to ignore energy and home prices?
  • Will the current problems in financial markets extend the downturn beyond housing into other sectors, especially commercial construction?
  • Will overseas economies continue to grow and buy more U.S. goods?

The higher oil price does raise the probability of recession. Three consecutive quarters of growth near or less than 1.5% mean that a negative quarter is very likely but lets hope with luck there won't be two in a row.

SPENDING SPREE

The ability of the American consumer to keep on spending continues to surprise pretty much one and all. Consumer spending again rose at a 3.0% annual rate in the third quarter, rebounding from a slow 1.4% in the second quarter. The saving rate rose to 0.9% in September. So far, however, it is clear that consumers have no doubt been living up to—if not beyond—their incomes.
Even more important is the rise in oil prices, which is squeezing consumer buying power. Oil hit $97/barrel on Nov. 6. It is widely being forecasted that the price will retreat to $85/barrel over the next few months. Although the underlying supply and demand conditions suggest that prices should be lower, worries about the middle east, problems between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds, with President Musharraf in Pakistan, and with Iran all add to fears of supply disruption
The risk of further price hikes is clearly very real, and these could further squeeze consumers.
It is expected to slow, but not stop consumer spending.

GLOBAL EFFECT

The major area of strength for the U.S. economy is foreign trade. The widening trade gap had been a drag on GDP over the last several years, but it has been improving since last January. U.S. growth has slowed, slowing imports, while growth overseas has remained stronger. The falling dollar has also helped boost exports. Over the last four quarters, the improvement in the real trade deficit has added 0.75% to real GDP, accounting for 30% of the 2.6% real GDP growth.
Asian growth appears solid. Chinese GDP is set to climb 11.5% this year, with Indian real GDP set to touch 9.5%. Some slowdown in both is likely next year, but China's should remain in the double digits. The developed countries are doing less well. Europe is slowing, in part because the strength of the euro hurts exports and U.S. growth is slower. Japan's real GDP fell in the second quarter but should rebound in the third. One advantage for the rest of the world is that the U.S. slowdown has been concentrated in residential construction. Because residential construction has a relatively small import component, the effect on exports from Asia and other markets has been much less than if it had been concentrated elsewhere.

There has been a lot of talk about the decoupling of the world economy. That metaphor is incorrect. The world is more tightly coupled than it has ever been by financial and trade flows. The difference is not that the train has come uncoupled but that the train has more engines pulling it. A decade ago, the U.S. was 23% of world GDP in terms of purchasing power and accounted for about the same percentage of world growth. Today, the U.S.'s share of world GDP has shrunk to 20%, and it accounted for only 12% of 2006 growth. China, in contrast, has risen to 15% of world GDP and 30% of world growth.

Oil prices are a problem for other countries besides the U.S., but there is a critical difference between a rise in oil prices caused by stronger demand and higher oil prices caused by supply disruption. When demand pulls oil prices, the higher costs to the oil importers are balanced by higher income for oil exporters, who either spend the money or invest it. This recycling of petroleum revenues helps keep the world economy going despite higher costs. It is not a perfect balance, and it has contributed to the problems of excess liquidity that has inflated bubbles around the world, but it is better than the alternative.

The dollar is of course going to continue to fall. The current account deficit, although it has shrunk, remains very wide at 5.5% of GDP in the third quarter. In the last two years, the inflow of capital seeking higher yields in the U.S. offset this. But a year ago, U.S. Treasuries were trading a percentage point higher than equivalent European government bonds. Today, that spread has shrunk to only 15 basis points (bps). In addition, foreign investors are worried about the dollar decline, making European investments look like a better bet. August was the first significant outflow from the U.S. financial markets in over five years; it will continue.

Fed’s work is cut out

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice already, by a total of 75 bps. The Fed statement was tough, but no one is denying the weakness in the economy and it is likely to force another rate cut, most likely early next year. The Fed is right to be concerned about inflation, especially given the falling dollar and its impact on consumer prices. But in the short run, recession is the bigger risk. Even if there were no election in 2008, the Fed would have to focus on real growth—at least for a few quarters.